Group 1 - The political landscape, particularly President Trump's choice for the next Federal Reserve Chair, could significantly influence the cryptocurrency cycle, making predictions more challenging [1][2] - CEO Mike Novogratz of Galaxy Digital Inc. indicated that a selection favoring aggressive interest rate cuts could initiate a substantial upward trend in cryptocurrency prices [2][4] - Novogratz highlighted the current macroeconomic uncertainty, exacerbated by the potential impact of artificial intelligence, complicating the ability to predict market cycles [3] Group 2 - Stephen Miran, a new Fed governor appointed by Trump, has called for aggressive interest rate cuts, which contrasts with the views of other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members [4] - Trump has been critical of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell for maintaining high interest rates, advocating for cuts to support economic growth [4] - Cryptocurrency bettors on Polymarket estimate a 21% chance that Trump will appoint Christopher Waller as a "shadow chair" before the end of the year [5]