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Bond Traders Dare to Go Longer Before 4% Yield Disappears
Yahoo Financeยท 2025-10-05 19:00
Core Viewpoint - Bond investors are shifting focus towards longer-term Treasury bonds as they anticipate a rally in 10-year US Treasuries, potentially driving yields below 4% for the first time since April [1] Market Dynamics - A cluster of bullish option trades has emerged, indicating investor confidence in the decline of 10-year Treasury yields [1] - Recent market movements have pushed down 10-year Treasury yields by 0.05 percentage points to near 4.1%, while 30-year yields have also decreased to about 4.7% [3] - The bond market is perceived as offering good value, particularly for retirees and pension plans, with current interest rates being attractive [4] Investment Strategy - Pacific Investment Management Co. is advising clients to lock in yields while they remain favorable, as clients are moving from short-term notes to longer, higher-yielding maturities [1] - TD Securities notes that while there is caution in the market, investors are beginning to explore longer-term investments [2] Performance Trends - The bond market has experienced its best year-to-date performance in five years through September, driven by expectations of renewed Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] - The gap between US five- and 30-year bonds has narrowed to approximately 1 percentage point, down from a four-year high of about 1.26 percentage points in early September [6]