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Olin Corporation (OLN): A Bull Case Theory
Yahoo Financeยท 2025-10-22 20:55
Company Overview - Olin Corporation (OLN) is currently trading at $24.85, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 19.62 and 17.99 respectively [1] - The company is recognized for its significant position in the chlor-alkali market, owning the largest producer in the U.S., where the top three players control approximately 70% of the market [2] Financial Performance - Despite being in a cyclical trough, Olin Corporation remains profitable, generating around 9% free cash flow even at depressed earnings levels [2] - The company has a leverage ratio of roughly 3.5x net debt to trough EBITDA, with no significant debt maturities until 2029, and 2033 bonds trading at a premium yield of 6.2% [3] - Olin maintains a 3% dividend and sufficient cash flow to support share repurchases, even at trough earnings [3] Business Segments - Olin's chemical business is complemented by its ownership of Winchester, the second-largest ammunition maker in the U.S., which serves both civilian and government customers [3] - The ammunition segment is projected to decline to approximately $140 million EBITDA in 2025 from $435 million in 2021, but it offers strategic exposure to increased civil unrest and potential election-cycle demand [4] - Recent acquisitions imply a $2.5 billion valuation for the Winchester segment alone [4] Investment Thesis - Olin Corporation presents a compelling cyclical turnaround opportunity, reinforced by Berkshire Hathaway's investment framework [2][5] - The combination of a resilient, cash-generative chemical business and a strategically positioned ammunition segment provides a unique risk/reward profile for investors [5]