Market Sentiment - Approximately 80% of Americans are concerned about a potential recession according to a 2025 survey by MDRT [1] Historical Context - Historical performance does not guarantee future returns, and the current stock market differs significantly from that of 10 or 20 years ago [5] - The S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio, a key market indicator, is currently close to 40, the second-highest figure in history, suggesting potential lower returns in the coming years [8] Valuation Insights - The long-term average of the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio is around 17, with a historical high of approximately 44 before the dot-com bubble burst [7][8] - Higher company valuations complicate market metrics, particularly in the tech industry, which has seen unprecedented growth [9] Investment Strategy - It is advisable for investors to focus on quality stocks with long-term growth potential, as weaker companies may struggle to recover from downturns [11] - While a downturn is anticipated, it may not be a record-breaking recession, making it prudent to prepare investment portfolios accordingly [10]