Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter core FFO was $1.44 per share, finishing at the top end of guidance ranges [10] - Average occupancy was 95.3% for the quarter and 95% for the full year, with period-end finishing at 95.8% [10] - Net effective rent change was 44% for the quarter, contributing approximately $60 million of annualized NOI, with a full-year net effective rent change exceeding 50% [10] - Same-store NOI growth was 4.7% on a net effective basis and 5.7% on a cash basis, each ahead of guidance midpoint [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed 57 million sq ft of leases in the quarter, driving occupancy toward 96% [9] - Development platform, particularly in build-to-suits, continues to outperform, with $1.1 billion in new buildings started in the quarter [12] - In strategic capital, two new investment vehicles were formed in the U.S. and China [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net absorption was 59 million sq ft in the U.S., with a decline in U.S. vacancy to 7.4% [13][14] - Many markets are beginning to see expansion as market rent growth starts to outpace portfolio churn [11] - International markets, particularly in Latin America and Europe, are outperforming, with strong occupancy and ongoing rent growth [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on three priorities: extending leadership as a best-in-class operator, capturing value creation opportunities in logistics and data centers, and enhancing shareholder returns through growth in assets under management [6][8] - The company aims to develop critical infrastructure with a growing power pipeline and deep customer relationships [7] - Strategic capital partners are increasingly seeking fewer managers who can deliver consistent performance across geographies and strategies [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational and financial results despite challenges in 2025, highlighting the strength and resilience of the platform [20] - The company anticipates positive rent growth to emerge more clearly over the course of 2026, with market vacancies expected to improve [30][31] - Management noted that e-commerce remains a significant driver of demand, representing approximately 20% of new leasing activity over the last year [15] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant milestones in strategic capital, including the IPO of the China AMC Prologis Logistics REIT [17] - The installed capacity in the energy business reached 1.1 gigawatts, surpassing the previous goal [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in strategic initiatives with new leadership - Management emphasized a focus on compounding the core logistics business while broadening the platform, with plans to grow the strategic capital area significantly [22][24] Question: Market rent growth expectations for 2026 - Management expects net absorption to approach 200 million sq ft in 2026, with vacancies declining to 7.1%-7.2% by year-end [30][31] Question: Data center project details and guidance - Approximately 40% of the development starts guidance for 2026 is expected to be in data centers, with a small number of imminent projects [35] Question: Clarification on occupancy growth and FFO growth limits - Management expressed confidence in occupancy growth despite potential downticks, with a forecast of a 25 basis points increase in average occupancy [43] Question: Capital deployment pipeline and ramp-up - Management highlighted a significant number of opportunities and the ability to make decisions based on market conditions [51][52] Question: Same-store growth guidance breakdown - The guidance reflects a mix of occupancy gains and mark-to-market improvements, with occupancy drag expected to lessen over time [64]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter core FFO was $1.44 per share, including net promote expense, and $1.46 per share, excluding net promote expense, finishing at the top end of guidance ranges [9] - Average occupancy was 95.3% for the quarter and 95% for the full year, with period-end finishing at 95.8% [9] - Net effective rent change was 44% for the quarter, contributing approximately $60 million of annualized NOI, driving net effective rent change for the year to more than 50% [9] - Same-store NOI growth was 4.7% on a net effective basis and 5.7% on a cash basis, each ahead of guidance midpoint [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company signed 57 million sq ft of leases in the quarter, driving occupancy toward 96% [8] - The development platform, particularly in build-to-suits, continues to outperform, with 48% of new buildings started being build-to-suit [11] - In strategic capital, two new investment vehicles were formed in the U.S. and China [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fourth quarter net absorption was 59 million sq ft in the U.S., leading to a decline in U.S. vacancy to 7.4% [12] - Many markets are beginning to see expansion as market rent growth starts to outpace portfolio churn [10] - International markets, particularly in Latin America and Europe, are showing robust consumption trends and high occupancy [14][15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on three priorities: extending leadership as a best-in-class operator, capturing value creation opportunities in logistics and data centers, and enhancing shareholder returns through growth in assets under management [5][6] - The company aims to develop critical infrastructure with a growing power pipeline and deep customer relationships [5] - The strategic capital area is expected to grow significantly through existing and new vehicles [22] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational and financial results despite challenges in 2025, highlighting the strength and resilience of the platform [19] - The company anticipates positive rent growth to emerge more clearly over the course of 2026, with net absorption expected to approach 200 million sq ft [26] - Management noted that uncertainty remains, but it is treated more as a planning assumption rather than an impediment [13] Other Important Information - The company achieved significant milestones in strategic capital, including the IPO of the China AMC Prologis Logistics REIT [15] - The installed capacity in the energy business reached 1.1 gigawatts, surpassing the previous goal [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in strategic initiatives with new leadership - The focus remains on compounding the core logistics business while broadening the platform, with an emphasis on development where supply is constrained [22] Question: Market rent growth expectations for 2026 - Market vacancies are expected to improve, with net absorption anticipated to approach 200 million sq ft in 2026 [26] Question: Data center project details and guidance - Approximately 40% of the development starts guidance is expected to be in data centers, with a mix of Powered Shell and Turnkey projects [28] Question: Clarification on occupancy growth in U.S. vs. international markets - Occupancy gains are expected to be dispersed across geographies, with more weight coming from the U.S. [50] Question: Contribution expectations for new vehicles in 2026 - The contribution guidance includes the Agility Fund, which will undertake development activities and take contributions of land from Prologis [45]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that data centers are among the strongest drivers of U.S. nonresidential construction activity, with the construction boom still in its early stages according to Moody's [3] - Larger hyperscale data centers with capacities exceeding 300 megawatts are expected to come online this year, significantly increasing overall capacity [3] - Developers are accelerating construction schedules to meet the demands of hyperscalers, with tenants willing to share risks related to power and utility availability [4] Group 2 - High global demand for skilled labor and essential materials is impacting the construction of data centers, with producers cautiously increasing output to meet demand [5] - New data centers are projected to be more expensive than older facilities in similar markets, but demand is not expected to decrease despite higher costs [6] - In northern Virginia, lease prices for hyperscale data centers are projected to rise to $130 to $190 per kilowatt per month in 2025, up from $110 to $150 in 2024, reflecting similar trends in other markets [7] Group 3 - Global data center investment is anticipated to reach at least $3 trillion over the next five years, driven by rising construction costs and resource demand [8] - Hyperscalers are expected to drive double-digit growth in data center capacity through at least 2026, benefiting construction pipelines [8] - Evolving financing structures are supporting large-scale builds, with some tenants increasingly willing to share construction delivery risks to expedite completion [8]

Core Insights - Concerns about an AI bubble are rising, yet major private investors remain optimistic about their investments in data centers and AI technology [1][2] Investment Sentiment - Blackstone's President Jon Gray highlighted that data centers are the firm's biggest moneymaker, while Ares CEO Michael Arougheti noted that international data center investments are exceeding expectations and enhancing revenue forecasts [2] - Blue Owl co-CEO Doug Ostrover expressed strong confidence in data center investments, indicating a positive outlook for continued investment growth [2] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Apollo CEO Marc Rowan emphasized the global demand for data center capacity, stating that major users require more compute resources, but supply is constrained by natural, energy, and regulatory limits [3][4] - Ostrover pointed out an unprecedented supply-demand imbalance in the market, with demand accelerating while supply remains stagnant [4] Risk Considerations - Rowan discussed the risks associated with lease renewals for data centers, indicating a preference for lease-up risk over renewal risk, as the future of energy and compute usage remains uncertain [5] - The variability in energy usage projections for 2030 raises concerns about the reliability of long-term investments in data centers [5] Lease Quality and Investment Strategy - Blackstone focuses on long-term lease data centers, only commencing construction with a 15-plus year lease from large market cap companies, thereby mitigating risk [6] - Blue Owl's strategy includes securing favorable leases with high-quality tenants, transitioning from traditional tenants to major tech companies like Microsoft and Google, which enhances investment security [9][10] Financial Returns - Blue Owl's triple-net-lease business model, where tenants cover taxes, insurance, and maintenance, has historically yielded over 20% returns, and the firm expects similar terms with top-tier tenants [8][9] - Even in scenarios where facilities may have no residual value at the end of their lives, Ostrover believes returns can still be achieved, indicating a robust investment strategy [10]

Core Insights - The AI arms race presents both opportunities and risks, with potential for significant financial gains and losses [1] - Demand for data is currently strong, providing a safety buffer for credit investors, particularly through non-negotiable leases with major tech companies [2] - Investment in data center companies can be speculative due to their lack of diversified business models compared to hyperscalers [4] Group 1: Investment Landscape - Credit investors are focused on securing repayment before lease renewals, as the demand for data is expected to remain robust in the coming years [2] - The leases with major tech firms typically last between 10 to 15 years, creating a stable cash flow for credit investors [2] - Equity investors face uncertainty as the future economics of data centers can be influenced by various factors, including technology advancements and energy consumption [3] Group 2: Risks and Concerns - The potential for tech giants not to renew leases could leave data center owners without clients, impacting their returns on equity [3] - Investment in data centers is seen as speculative, as ownership does not guarantee profitability despite the value of data [4] - The real risk lies with highly leveraged companies that support hyperscalers, which are dependent on contracts and financing from tech giants [6] Group 3: Hyperscalers' Stability - Concerns have been raised about hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google using debt for AI infrastructure, but they are viewed as stable due to their strong cash flows [5]

Core Thesis - Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. has emerged as a significant turnaround story in the U.S. construction sector, driven by strategic refocusing and disciplined M&A under CEO Joe Cutillo since 2017 [2][6] Company Overview - Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. provides e-infrastructure, transportation, and building solutions in the United States, having transformed from a decade-long slump to a competitive player in the market [2] - The company's share was trading at $327.78 as of December 2nd, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 31.42 and 25.97, respectively [1] Business Segments - The company operates across three key segments: Transportation Solutions, Building Solutions, and E-Infrastructure, benefiting from federal and state infrastructure spending [3] - Recent acquisition of CEC Facilities enhances Sterling's electrical services, creating a more integrated platform with long-term growth potential and recurring revenue streams [3] Competitive Advantages - Sterling's competitive edge lies in its diversified operations, project flexibility, and reputation for speed and quality, enabling it to secure premium contracts with large industrial clients [4] - The company maintains earnings visibility through a strong contractual backlog and careful project selection, which helps mitigate typical construction cyclicality [4] Financial Performance - Sterling has shown robust revenue and EPS growth, with acquisitions positively impacting margins and geographic expansion [5] - The company's decentralized yet collaborative structure facilitates efficient integration of acquisitions while leveraging expertise across segments [5] Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned to sustain its growth trajectory, supported by disciplined capital allocation, strategic M&A, and structural competitive advantages, particularly if trends in infrastructure and data center investment continue [6]

Core Insights - The data center boom in America is at risk of becoming a bust unless investments are made in AI applications that address real-life problems such as security, affordability, healthcare, and waste management [1] - Significant capital expenditure (CapEx) is necessary to transition from infrastructure investment to developing applications and services that ensure sustainable returns on investments in data centers [2] - The national demand for electricity is projected to grow by 128 gigawatts over the next five years, while data centers will contribute an additional 93 gigawatts to the grid [3] Investment and Infrastructure - Continued investment in physical infrastructure is essential to support the AI race, with the private sector, including major companies like Amazon, Nvidia, and Google, playing a crucial role [4] - There is a substantial opportunity to develop the application layer that integrates AI into the physical world, ensuring that data center investments yield significant returns [5] - Historical precedents, such as the development of AWS and the App Store, demonstrate the potential for scalable infrastructure to create vast commercial opportunities [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - Caterpillar's stock is being positively influenced by optimism surrounding its long-term exposure to artificial intelligence (AI) and data center investments, despite being traditionally viewed as part of the "old economy" [1] Caterpillar's AI/Data Center Exposure - The recent investor day presentation highlighted the new power and energy segment, which is a restructured version of the old energy and transportation segment, excluding the rail division [2] - The power and energy segment focuses on engines, generator sets, and industrial gas turbines, with management identifying significant growth opportunities driven by AI-led demand for data center capacity and power [3] Segment Performance - The energy and transportation segment generated $8.4 billion in sales, reflecting a 17% growth, and $1.68 billion in profit, with a profit growth of 17.1% [4] - Other segments, such as construction industries and resource industries, showed lower sales and profit growth, with construction industries at $6.76 billion (7% growth) and resource industries at $3.11 billion (2% growth) [4] Guidance Upgrade - The growth potential in the power and energy segment has led management to upgrade medium-term targets, reflecting confidence in future performance [7] - The new targets for 2024-2030 include a sales growth of 5%-7% compound annual growth, adjusted operating profit margins of 15%-19% at $60 billion in sales, and free cash flow guidance increased to $6 billion to $15 billion [9] Valuation Insights - Caterpillar's current market capitalization of $259 billion suggests a valuation range between 43 times (at trough free cash flow) and 17 times (at peak free cash flow), indicating that the stock price already reflects optimism from the AI/data center theme [10] - The market appears to be factoring in positive outcomes for other segments, such as construction and resources, which is a consideration for potential investors at the current valuation [11]

Core Insights - Anthropic's first data centers will be located in Texas and New York, with a total investment of $50 billion in U.S. data centers [1] Group 1 - The company is committing significant resources to establish its data center infrastructure in the United States [1] - The choice of Texas and New York as locations indicates a strategic focus on key markets for data services [1] - The $50 billion investment reflects the growing demand for data processing and storage capabilities in the tech industry [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.66 for the first nine months of 2025, an increase of $0.19 compared to the same period in 2024, primarily driven by favorable regulatory outcomes and a return to normal weather conditions [12][15] - The bottom end of the earnings guidance for 2025 has been raised to a range of $3.56 to $3.60 per share from $3.54 to $3.60 per share, reflecting confidence in achieving financial objectives [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company connected approximately 450 megawatts of the planned 900 megawatts of industrial growth in its five-year plan, with an additional 100 megawatts of signed contracts year to date [5][6] - The Renewable Energy Plan approved an additional 8 gigawatts of solar and 2.8 gigawatts of wind through 2035, which will be integrated into the next five-year plan [3][4] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company continues to see strong economic growth in Michigan, with a robust pipeline of projects in data centers and manufacturing, contributing to a forecasted annual sales growth of 2% to 3% over the next five years [5][6] - The company is well-positioned to serve the growing demand from data centers and other industries, with a significant investment plan of $20 billion for customer investments over the next five years [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on balancing customer investments with affordability, aiming to keep customer rates at or below inflation while maintaining utility bills below the national average [11] - The Integrated Resource Plan, to be filed in mid-2026, will detail additional capacity needed to replace retired plants and support future growth, emphasizing the need for more battery storage and natural gas generation [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strong pipeline of new and expanding load, which supports infrastructure investments across both gas and electric businesses [22] - The company anticipates needing more battery storage and gas capacity as part of its long-term strategy to meet growing demand and regulatory requirements [10][39] Other Important Information - The company has reaffirmed its credit ratings and is focused on maintaining a strong financial position to minimize funding costs [20] - The company has completed nearly all planned financings for 2025, with a recent settlement of approximately $500 million of forward equity contracts [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the timing of the large load tariff? - Management expects the large load tariff to be finalized by November 7, which is crucial for advancing projects in the pipeline [25][26] Question: How quickly could the $25 billion of CapEx be folded into the plan? - Management indicated that some of the $25 billion would be incorporated into the next five-year plan, with a focus on electric reliability and renewable energy investments [39][50] Question: What is the mix between self-build and PPA for the Renewable Energy Plan? - The company plans for a mix of self-build and power purchase agreements, with an assumption of about 50% owned versus PPA for solar projects [81][87] Question: How much excess capacity is available to serve the new load? - The company has a bit of excess capacity and is actively building additional capacity in line with the clean energy law [68] Question: What is the status of the Campbell plant and its potential continuation? - Management confirmed that costs associated with operating the Campbell units are treated as a regulatory asset, with a clear path to cost recovery [73][75]