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AI 基础设施系列:AI 数据中心电力创新,从 UPS 到高压直流与固态变压器-AI Infra Series #7 - AIDC Power Innovation, From UPS to HVDC and SST
2025-12-08 00:41
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center)** power systems, highlighting innovations in power supply and distribution, cost breakdowns, and opportunities in energy storage systems (ESS) [1][2][3] Core Insights Power Supply System Innovations - AIDC's power supply systems are evolving to accommodate increasing rack power density due to AI workloads, with projections indicating that by 2028, new cabinet architectures like NVIDIA's Kyber could reach **1MW per rack** [2] - The transition from traditional **415VAC** to **800VDC** systems is prioritized, allowing for higher current capacity, reduced losses, and lower capital expenditures (capex) [2] - Solutions for managing dynamic loads include software-based load management and integrating energy storage systems to buffer power fluctuations [2] Power Distribution System Innovations - The distribution system is shifting from legacy AC architectures to advanced **HVDC** and hybrid models, with four identified stages of evolution [3] - The adoption of **solid-state transformers (SSTs)** is deemed inevitable as they significantly enhance power density and reduce the footprint compared to traditional transformers [3] Cost Breakdown for AIDC Capex - For a **1GW GB200 AIDC**, the capex distribution is as follows: - IT: **57.4%** - Mechanical and electrical infrastructure: **31.9%** - Construction: **11.2%** - Transmission (including transformers): **9.9%** - Backup power (UPS, BBU): **4.6%** - Rack-level power delivery: **0.9%**, increasing with next-gen server platforms [4] SST's Application - SSTs are crucial for the next phase of AIDC power distribution, offering a footprint at least **50% smaller** than traditional solutions and enabling direct medium-voltage DC distribution [5] - Challenges include insulation, heat dissipation, and reliability as power densities increase [5] Backup Power Solutions - The backup power landscape is transitioning from diesel generators and centralized UPS to a mix of gas turbines, BESS, and distributed battery backup units (BBUs) [9] - The adoption of UPS is declining among leading cloud providers, with BESS and BBUs providing faster, modular backup solutions [9] Opportunities in Energy Storage Systems (ESS) - ESS are becoming integral for dynamic load management and grid interaction, smoothing power fluctuations and supporting grid stability [10] - The U.S. market is moving towards mandatory storage integration, benefiting suppliers of batteries and related components, although regulatory uncertainties pose challenges for Chinese suppliers [10] Company-Specific Insights Kehua Data Co., Ltd. - Valued at a price target of **Rmb 86.07**, implying a **40x 2026E P/E** ratio [13] - Key risks include weaker-than-expected domestic AI capex and increased competition [13] Shenzhen Kstar Science and Technology - Valued at a price target of **Rmb 64.86**, also implying a **40x 2026E P/E** [14] - Similar risks as Kehua Data, including competition and expansion challenges [14] Additional Important Information - The report includes analyst certifications and disclosures regarding potential conflicts of interest, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one of many factors in investment decisions [6][33]