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Sterling vs. Granite: Which Infrastructure Stock is the Smarter Bet?
ZACKSยท 2025-10-16 16:01
Core Insights - The U.S. infrastructure market is experiencing growth due to federal and state funding initiatives aimed at enhancing public infrastructure and sustainability, benefiting companies like Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. and Granite Construction Incorporated [1][2] - A recent Federal Reserve rate cut is expected to further stimulate investments in large-scale projects, enhancing the market environment for these companies [2] Company Analysis: Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) - Sterling has a market capitalization of approximately $11 billion and is shifting focus towards large mission-critical projects, such as data centers and manufacturing, due to weakness in the housing market [4] - The E-Infrastructure Solutions segment, which contributes 51% to total revenues, saw a year-over-year revenue growth of 24.2% in the first half of 2025, with a backlog increase of 44% to $1.2 billion [5] - The company expects E-Infrastructure Solutions revenue growth of 18% to 20% year-over-year in 2025, with adjusted operating profit margins projected in the mid-to-high 20% range [5] - Recent acquisition of CEC Facilities Group is expected to enhance Sterling's capabilities in mission-critical electrical and mechanical services [6] Company Analysis: Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) - Granite has a market capitalization of approximately $4.7 billion and is executing a strategic plan aimed at driving construction margins and enhancing organic growth [7] - Revenues in Granite's Construction and Materials segments grew by 2.6% and 13.2% year-over-year, respectively, with Committed and Awarded Projects reaching a record $6.1 billion [9] - Recent acquisitions, including Warren Paving and Papich Construction, are expected to contribute approximately $425 million in annual revenues with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 18% [10] - Granite's financial performance is supported by a solid project backlog and recent acquisitions, although earnings estimates have remained flat [22] Stock Performance & Valuation - Sterling's stock has outperformed Granite's and the broader construction sector over the past three months, trading at a premium valuation compared to Granite [12][14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for STRL's 2025 EPS indicates a year-over-year growth of 56.9%, while GVA's estimates imply improvements of 26.6% [18][20] - Sterling's trailing 12-month ROE of 29.1% exceeds Granite's average, indicating higher efficiency in generating shareholder returns [20] Investment Recommendation - Sterling is positioned as a stronger investment choice due to its accelerating growth, operational leverage, and upward earnings estimate momentum [23] - Granite, while stable, shows slower growth and limited near-term catalysts, reflected in its Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [22]