Here we are again. We're in the big debt cycle once again. And the thing that you describe of we're all on the ship.We're headed towards the iceberg and people saying, "No, we got to go left." The other people, "No, we got to go right." And ultimately, we we just crash into the iceberg. That's kind of where I'm beginning to land on this debt issue. And if you think that's kind of the situation we're in, what do we do about that. What do we do that about that as investors, as young people, as professionals. ...

Debt Situation - US national debt is currently $37 trillion [1] - Net interest payments are $900 billion per year, representing the second largest federal expenditure [1] - The government will spend 40% more than it takes in this year [2] - The debt is about six times the amount of money the government takes in [2] Debt Management - The government needs to come up with $12 trillion next year, essentially debt it has to sell [2] - $1 trillion, about half of the budget deficit, goes to interest [3] - $9 trillion of debt needs to be rolled forward as it's maturing [3] - An additional $2 trillion of debt will be sold [3]

Macroeconomic Analysis - GMI's view is that the current cycle is not different but the same, based on debt maturity [1]

Economic Cycles - The industry observes that economic cycles occur approximately once in a lifetime due to breakdowns in established systems [1] - These breakdowns create cyclical patterns [1] Debt and Monetary Systems - The industry notes the existence of monetary systems and debt cycles [2] - One entity's debt represents another's assets [2] - The industry identifies a debt issue arising from unsustainable debt accumulation [2]

Economic Cycles - Economic cycles typically last about six years from one recession to the next [2] - Central banks inject money and credit into weak economies, causing market increases and increased spending, eventually leading to inflation [2] - Inflation prompts tightening of monetary policy, causing economic recession [3] - Since 1945, there have been 12 and a half economic cycles [3] Debt and Income - Debts are rising relative to incomes in most countries [3] - High debt relative to income and expensive debt service crowd out other spending [4] - Investors may sell debt if it doesn't provide good returns, leading to a change in the big debt cycle [4] Big Cycle and Political Disruption - The big debt cycle typically corresponds with the big domestic political and social cycle [4] - Disruption to wealth and well-being leads to political disruption [4] - Increased fighting over wealth and power creates new conflicts and seismic shifts [5] - These periods of great change are periods of great risk for markets and society [5]