Debt Problem
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Why I'm Pessimistic About the Debt Problem
Principles by Ray Dalio· 2025-10-08 13:52
Economic History & Fiscal Policy - Fiat currencies historically fail due to political pressure preventing spending cuts and tax increases [1] - Market forces may address fiscal issues in a "very ugly crude way" if proactive measures are not taken [2] - A reduction in exemptions is a possible solution [2] Political & Legislative Outlook - Post-2026 midterm elections, a bipartisan commission might address fiscal questions [3] - The best outcome is a bipartisan commission after 2026, but commissions often fail to implement plans effectively [3]
How Japan Dealt With Their Debt Problem
Principles by Ray Dalio· 2025-07-18 13:07
Monetary Policy & Currency Devaluation - Japan printed money to buy bonds, maintaining lower interest rates (3% lower than the US) [1] - Japan devalued its currency by an average of 4% [1] Investment Losses & Economic Impact - Japanese bonds lost 45% relative to US bonds and 60% relative to gold [2] - Japanese workers' monthly earnings decreased from $3,500 to $2,500 (in dollar terms) [2] - Japanese workers' monthly earnings decreased from 13 ounces to 1 ounce of gold equivalent [2] - Investors holding yen-denominated bonds or currency against the dollar would be down approximately 84% [3] Book Promotion - A new book titled "How countries go broke the big cycle" is releasing on June 3rd [3]