So if the US economy came to you as a patient and you were looking over all the data, the jobs, inflation, all of it, what would you tell this economy. What kind of checkup does it get. The economy is like a middle-aged man who's really smart and well earning and has a lot of good years ahead of him, but maybe could lose 10 pounds or maybe even 15 or 20 pounds.This is hitting very close to home, Alison. You got a lot of potential. There's still a lot of great things you're going to do.You're pretty much lik ...

All right, so we're getting a flurry of tariff proposals from the president. We had Howard Letic our air yesterday. Also talking about potential progress when it comes to moves with the EU.What does this all mean for the market and also for the Fed. Does it change the math at all when it comes to your thesis when it comes to the market. So, it doesn't change our math at all as it relates to Fed policy and the path forward for rate cuts.We're still believing as the Fed continues to push that there's dovish f ...

Core Insights - Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) has experienced a significant stock decline of 56% over the past year, underperforming compared to peers in the oil and gas drilling sector [1][13] - The company faces multiple operational and financial challenges, raising concerns about its near-term outlook and ability to stabilize and grow [2] Financial Performance - The U.S. Drilling segment reported a decrease in adjusted EBITDA from $105.8 million in Q4 2024 to $92.7 million in Q1 2025, attributed to lower rig counts and operational inefficiencies [3] - Daily margins in the Lower 48 states fell from $14,940 to $14,276 due to increased rig churn, leading to higher costs and contract instability [3][4] - Management anticipates only a marginal recovery in daily margins to $14,100 in Q2 2025, indicating ongoing pressure in the U.S. market, which accounts for 44% of total drilling revenues [4] Geopolitical and Market Risks - Nabors suspended operations in Russia due to U.S. sanctions, incurring $28.6 million in non-cash charges, and does not expect to resume activities there [5] - The company faces challenges in Colombia and Mexico, including delayed customer payments, with 20% of international rigs located in volatile regions, increasing exposure to geopolitical risks [5] Debt and Cash Flow Concerns - Nabors' net debt stood at $2.28 billion in Q1 2025, with adjusted free cash flow showing a usage of $71 million [6] - The company has a capital expenditure target of $770-$780 million for 2025, which includes $360 million for SANAD newbuilds, constraining near-term cash flow [6] - The Parker acquisition added $178 million in debt, and rising interest rates pose refinancing risks, raising concerns about financial stability [6] Dependency on Joint Ventures - The SANAD joint venture is crucial for growth, contributing significantly to international EBITDA, but its success is contingent on Saudi Aramco's capital discipline [7] - Any slowdown in Aramco's gas-focused drilling, which constitutes 75% of SANAD's activity, could jeopardize projections [7] Integration and Operational Challenges - The Parker acquisition, while expected to generate $40 million in synergies, introduces integration complexities and costs, with $14 million incurred in the first quarter [9] - Parker's negative free cash flow of $10 million in Q1 and a $60 million capex target for 2025 further strain liquidity [9] Customer and Revenue Risks - Nabors faces receivables issues, particularly in Mexico, where $20 million in expected collections were delayed [11] - The company's reliance on a few key clients increases vulnerability to payment delays or contract cancellations, contrasting with peers that have diversified their customer bases [11] Market Position and Comparison - Over the past year, Nabors' share price has dropped 56.4%, significantly more than declines of 45.7%, 50.9%, and 39.1% for peers Transocean, Helmerich & Payne, and Patterson-UTI Energy, respectively [13] - The overall Oils-Energy sector saw a rise of 3.6%, highlighting Nabors' underperformance relative to both its industry peers and the broader market [13]