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Northrop Grumman(NOC) - 2025 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2026-01-27 15:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended 2025 with over $95 billion in backlog, a new record, driven by over $46 billion in net awards in 2025, with a five-year average book-to-bill ratio of 1.1 times [6] - 2025 sales were $42 billion, up 3% organically compared to the prior year, exceeding the high end of the guidance range [20] - Free cash flow for the year was $3.3 billion, representing a 26% increase compared to 2024, marking the third consecutive year of at least 25% growth [6][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Aeronautics Systems segment sales were $3.9 billion in Q4, up 18% year-over-year, driven by the F-35 program and B-21 program ramp-up [19] - Defense Systems (DS) Q4 sales grew by 7% on a GAAP basis, 12% organically, with broad-based growth including solid rocket motors and missile defense [19] - Mission Systems achieved double-digit growth in Q4, driven by strong production volume on restricted programs and international radar systems [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - International sales grew by 20% in 2025, with strong momentum as allied nations invest in enhancing their national security capabilities [14] - The company received formal requests to acquire IBCS from over 20 countries, indicating robust global demand for its technology [15] - The U.S. defense budget recommendation of $1.5 trillion for FY 2027 suggests potential historic growth in defense spending [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capital deployment to prioritize investments in value-creating growth opportunities, aligning its portfolio with customer demand signals [4] - The strategy includes transforming Northrop Grumman to meet customer needs more quickly, balancing performance with affordability and speed to market [35] - Investments are being made to expand production capacity, particularly in munitions and solid rocket motors, to meet increasing demand [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in continued solid growth, supported by a talented engineering team and a portfolio aligned with customer needs [6] - The company anticipates sales growth in 2026 to be between $43.5 billion and $44 billion, representing mid-single-digit growth [23] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining operational excellence and margin expansion through cost efficiencies and operational leverage [24] Other Important Information - The company plans to increase capital expenditures in 2026 to $1.65 billion, approximately 4% of total sales, to enhance production capacity [28] - The new CFO, John Green, is expected to drive growth and operational excellence, succeeding Ken Crews [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Transformation of Northrop Grumman - Management discussed the transformation strategy to meet customer needs more quickly, emphasizing the balance between performance and affordability [35] Question: Opportunities for Acceleration in 2026 - Management indicated that while there are significant opportunities for growth, the guidance reflects a balanced approach based on clear funding and backlog [39][40] Question: Backlog and Revenue Conversion - Management acknowledged the strong backlog but noted that translating it into revenue depends on the timing of contract awards [46][47] Question: Dividend and Buyback Plans - The company plans to keep the share count flat and focus on capital investments rather than executing additional buybacks beyond January [59] Question: Supply Chain Investments - Management confirmed that they are partnering with the supply chain for capacity expansion and addressing shortages in raw materials [60] Question: International Growth Expectations - Management expects 2026 to be a strong year for international awards, particularly for IBCS, with several contracts anticipated [95]
Boeing vs. Lockheed Martin: Which Aerospace-Defense Giant Has the Edge?
ZACKS· 2026-01-22 15:11
Core Insights - Geopolitical instability is driving growth for defense companies like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, with significant revenue from the U.S. government [1][2] - Proposed military spending by the U.S. government is set to increase to $1.5 trillion in fiscal 2027, which could lead to more contract opportunities for defense firms [2] Boeing (BA) Overview - Boeing's defense and space business outlook is optimistic, benefiting from its status as a major defense contractor and the U.S. government's focus on defense [4] - In Q4, Boeing's commercial aircraft deliveries rose by 180.7% year-over-year, while defense shipments increased by 2.8%, indicating improved cash flow and operational management [5] - Boeing forecasts a $4.7 trillion market opportunity for commercial aviation support and services from 2025 to 2044, with a backlog of $24.63 billion as of September 30, 2025 [6] Lockheed Martin (LMT) Overview - Lockheed Martin maintains a strong position as a leading U.S. defense contractor, with a platform-based strategy that ensures recurring orders [7] - The F-35 program is a key growth driver, contributing approximately 26% of total net sales in Q3 2025, supported by strong deliveries and a significant backlog [7][8] - Lockheed Martin's backlog reached $179.1 billion, with major contracts expected to convert into revenues over the next two years, enhancing long-term growth visibility [8] Comparative Analysis - Boeing is experiencing a rebound in commercial aircraft deliveries and benefits from rising defense priorities, with a projected long-term earnings growth rate of 31.33% and a Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 EPS indicating a 111.7% increase year-over-year [11][12] - Lockheed Martin's 2026 EPS is estimated to grow by 34.07% year-over-year, with a long-term earnings growth rate of 11.85% [11][14] - Boeing's shares trade at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 1.99, compared to Lockheed Martin's 1.74, indicating a relative valuation perspective [15] Liquidity and Performance - Boeing's current ratio is 1.18, while Lockheed Martin's is 1.13, suggesting both companies have sufficient short-term assets to cover liabilities [16] - Over the past year, Boeing's shares have increased by 43%, while Lockheed Martin's shares have risen by 17.5%, reflecting stronger market performance for Boeing [17] Investment Recommendation - Boeing shows improving momentum in defense, space, and commercial sectors, supported by rising aircraft deliveries and favorable government priorities, making it a more attractive investment compared to Lockheed Martin [18][19]