Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating on China within the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) index, highlighting resilient earnings and improving return on invested capital (ROIC) among listed manufacturers in China [8]. Core Insights - China's export volumes have surged by 20%, significantly outpacing a 6% rise in the rest of the world, marking the strongest outperformance since its WTO accession [2]. - Emerging Markets (EM) now account for over half of China's exports and trade surplus, indicating a deeper penetration into various sectors beyond just low prices [2][27]. - The report suggests that China's rising export competitiveness may negatively impact growth in the rest of EM, with manufacturing/GDP ratios near COVID lows and weakening orders [3][74]. Summary by Sections Export Dynamics - China's exports are increasingly directed towards EM, with a notable rise in its trade surplus with these regions [27][65]. - The report indicates that China's share of world exports has reached its highest level in approximately 20 years, with significant gains in various sectors [36][37]. Economic Implications - The macroeconomic data suggests that EM ex-China is experiencing challenges such as decelerating foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and subdued credit impulses, which may be exacerbated by China's competitive exports [3][4]. - The report highlights that manufacturing margins in EM ex-China are near decadal highs, but rising competition from China could pressure these margins [10][11]. Asset Implications - The report identifies that MSCI China equities are trading at a 20% discount compared to historical averages, presenting potential upside risks due to elevated equity risk premia and high household savings [8]. - It emphasizes the need for a selective approach within MSCI EM ex-China, with Brazil and Greece appearing more insulated from the impacts of Chinese competition [10][11]. Currency and Fixed Income Outlook - The report suggests that the dollar downturn should be approached selectively in EM, as competition from China could structurally impact EM FX carry and FDI inflows [12][13]. - It expresses concerns about further curve steepening in EM local debt markets, projecting GDP growth to fall to decade lows relative to interest rates [13].