Delivery Growth
Search documents
Can Lucid Keep Its Delivery Growth Streak Alive in 2026?
ZACKS· 2026-01-08 14:27
Core Insights - Lucid Group (LCID) ended 2025 with strong operational momentum, achieving record deliveries and a production ramp that reset expectations, while profitability and cash flow remain critical factors for investors to monitor [1] Delivery Performance - Deliveries reached 15,841 vehicles in 2025, marking a 55% year-over-year increase. Fourth-quarter deliveries totaled 5,345 units, a 31% sequential rise, and surpassed the 3,099 units delivered in the same quarter last year, resulting in eight consecutive quarters of record deliveries [2] Production Highlights - Full-year production totaled 18,378 vehicles, with a significant fourth-quarter surge to 8,412 units, representing a 116% increase from the third quarter and a 148% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, allowing Lucid to meet its year-end production target after a slow first half [3] Product Mix and Revenue Quality - The Gravity SUV became the majority of fourth-quarter production, reflecting a shift in order mix towards Gravity during the third quarter. This shift supported higher average selling prices as the company expanded the Gravity lineup, improving revenue quality alongside volume [4] Operational Adjustments - Management added a second shift in October to sustain the Gravity-led production cadence. The introduction of Gravity Touring is expected to broaden the addressable market, favoring higher-value configurations as 2026 progresses [5] Financial Overview - Margins were near triple-digit negative in Q3 2025, impacted by tariffs (approximately a 13-point hit to GAAP gross margin) and inventory effects related to the fourth-quarter ramp. Adjusted EBITDA losses widened year-over-year in Q3 due to persistent supply chain costs and launch expenses [6] - Free cash outflow was approximately $956 million in Q3, driven by elevated R&D, SG&A, and program investments. For 2025, management guided capital expenditures of $1-1.2 billion, indicating continued negative free cash flow in the near term despite improved volumes. Liquidity stood at $4.2 billion at the end of Q3 2025, with an undrawn delayed-draw term loan facility expanded to roughly $2 billion [7] Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 revenues indicates a year-over-year increase of 55% and 77%, respectively, aligning with stronger unit volume and a richer model mix following Gravity's transition to majority production in Q4 [8] Competitive Landscape - While LCID recorded a year-over-year increase in 2025 deliveries, competitors like Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN) experienced declines. Rivian delivered 42,247 vehicles in 2025, down from 51,579 in 2024, while Tesla delivered over 1,635,000 vehicles in 2025 compared to more than 1,789,000 in 2024 [9][10] Investor Considerations - Lucid enters 2026 with production momentum and a Gravity-driven mix that enhances sales potential. However, the stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) and a VGM Score of F, indicating near-term challenges as the market evaluates cash burn, tariffs, and supply variability against improving execution. The investment outlook now depends on the speed of margin recovery and moderation of cash burn amid a volatile cost environment [11]