Core Insights - Bitcoin's market cycle has transitioned into a new phase, indicating demand exhaustion and a potential shift into bear market territory according to CryptoQuant's latest report [1] Demand Growth Analysis - Bitcoin demand growth has significantly slowed since early October 2025, falling below its long-term trend [2] - The current cycle has experienced three major demand waves: the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, optimism surrounding the U.S. presidential election, and increased interest from Bitcoin Treasury Companies [2] - With these catalysts now priced in, incremental demand has decreased, removing a crucial source of price support that previously sustained upward momentum [3] Institutional and Large-Holder Behavior - Institutional demand has shifted from accumulation to distribution, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reducing net holdings by approximately 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, contrasting with strong net buying in Q4 2024 [4] - Onchain data indicates that addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC are growing below historical trends, reminiscent of patterns observed before the 2022 bear market [5] Derivatives Market Insights - Derivatives data shows that funding rates in perpetual futures have dropped to their lowest level since December 2023, indicating a reduced willingness among traders to maintain leveraged long positions [6] - Such conditions are historically more aligned with bear market regimes, reflecting declining risk appetite among market participants [7] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin has broken below its 365-day moving average, a critical long-term indicator that has historically differentiated between bull and bear market conditions [8] - The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is primarily driven by demand expansions and contractions rather than halving events [8]