Core Insights - Bitcoin demand has weakened recently, with ETF holdings declining and large investors accumulating more slowly, indicating a potential bear market [1][2][4] - The report suggests that most of the demand growth cycle for Bitcoin has passed, leading to bearish price effects [2][4] - Bitcoin's price has dropped 30% from its all-time high of over $126,000, currently trading just above $88,000 [2][5] ETF Holdings and Investor Behavior - U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in Q4 2025, with holdings decreasing by approximately 24,000 BTC, equivalent to around $2.12 billion [3] - There has been weaker growth among addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which includes ETFs and corporate treasury accounts [3][4] Price Trends and Market Indicators - Bitcoin has crossed below its 365-day moving average, a significant technical threshold that historically indicates a transition from bull to bear markets [4] - Historical patterns suggest that downturns typically follow periods of peak demand growth, with a potential cycle low projected at $56,000, representing a 55% drop from the all-time high [5][6] - Intermediate price support is identified around the $70,000 level [5] Market Context and Future Outlook - The report highlights a record $19 billion liquidation event in October, contributing to the recent declines in Bitcoin and other top assets [6] - Despite the bearish outlook, some analysts maintain bullish perspectives for Bitcoin into 2026, suggesting that traditional price cycles may no longer apply [6]