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Marathon's Richards on Fed Rate Cut and Private Credit
Bloomberg Televisionยท 2025-07-17 21:29
Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - Maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial, as markets react negatively to its perceived lack thereof [1][2] - The current Fed Funds rate of 45% is considered too high, especially with inflation at 25% and GDP growth slowing [3][5] - Lowering rates prematurely could lead to inflation [1] Private Credit Market - Private credit markets are experiencing substantial growth, projected to reach $10 to $15 trillion in a decade, growing at 20% annually [10] - Asset-based lending (ABL) within private credit is still in its early stages but poised for significant expansion [9] - Private equity's growth will drive the expansion of direct lending [8] - Banks are increasingly participating in private credit, buying and selling private loans [11] Banks & Private Credit - Banks are expected to play a significant role in financing debt related to private credit deals [13] - Banks may develop secondary markets to provide liquidity for listed private debt products [15] Democratization of Private Credit - Concerns exist regarding the suitability of private credit investments for retail investors [16] - Private credit offers attractive risk-adjusted returns compared to public equity markets, with historical net returns of 11-12% and half the volatility of the equity market which generates a 7% historical return [17] - Wealth management divisions of major banks vet managers and provide recommendations for private credit investments [19] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs have not significantly impacted prices, with exporters and importers absorbing the costs [4]
Ares Capital(ARCC) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-02-05 18:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported GAAP net income per share of $0.55 for Q4 2024, down from $0.62 in Q3 2024 and $0.72 in Q4 2023 [19] - For the full year, GAAP net income per share was $2.44, compared to $2.75 in 2023 [19] - The total portfolio at fair value increased to $26.7 billion at the end of Q4 2024, up from $25.9 billion at the end of Q3 2024 and $22.9 billion a year ago [21] - The weighted average yield on debt and other income-producing securities at amortized costs was 11.1% at December 31, down from 11.7% at September 30 and 12.5% at the end of 2023 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company originated approximately $3.8 billion of new investment commitments in Q4 2024, a more than 50% increase over Q4 2023 [26] - Total new commitments for the year reached $15 billion, more than double the commitment volumes of 2023 [26] - The non-accrual rate at cost ended the quarter at 1.7%, up 40 basis points from the prior quarter but below the historical average of 2.8% [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended 2024 with a record NAV per share of $19.89, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of NAV growth [13] - The organic weighted average LTM EBITDA growth rate of portfolio companies reached 11% in Q4, up from 10% in the prior quarter [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to out-origin its competition, which is seen as a key driver of long-term credit performance [14] - The focus on financing incumbent borrowers has increased, with over 70% of new commitments made to existing borrowers [15] - The company is well-positioned for a successful 2025, anticipating a healthy economy and increased M&A activity [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate potential impacts from new government policies, stating no material direct impact is expected [17] - The company is monitoring the economic environment closely, with a focus on maintaining strong credit performance despite potential challenges [18] - Management highlighted the importance of their diversified portfolio and strong credit performance in comparison to peers [16][18] Other Important Information - The company declared a first-quarter 2025 dividend of $0.48 per share, consistent with the Q4 2024 dividend [24] - The company has a taxable income spillover estimated at $922 million or $1.37 per share available for distribution to stockholders in 2025 [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Activity during Q4 and its impact on NII - Management noted that Q4 activity levels were flat compared to Q3, with some delays due to the election, but January has been busy [35][36] Question: Asset allocation within the portfolio - Management confirmed no change in the mix of the portfolio over time, maintaining a balance between junior and senior deals [39][41] Question: Sports franchise investment - Management discussed the recent investment in the Dolphins, emphasizing its uniqueness and potential for growth [48] Question: Impact of base rate declines on portfolio yields - Management indicated a lag effect in yield declines, with expectations for similar levels of decline in Q1 [61][63] Question: Outlook for credit losses - Management expressed confidence in the portfolio's performance, noting strong underlying profit growth and low non-accrual rates [87] Question: Ivy Hill distribution increase - Management confirmed that Ivy Hill's increased distribution is due to strong performance and a special dividend, with a new run rate expected [92][93] Question: Exposure to government contracts - Management indicated minimal exposure to government contracts, suggesting no significant impact on the portfolio [96][109]