Discounted cash flow model

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Canaccord Genuity Initiates Oklo With Buy Rating And $175 Price Target
Financial Modeling Prep· 2025-10-09 19:16
Core Viewpoint - Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage on Oklo Inc. with a Buy rating and a price target of $175.00, based on a discounted cash flow model extending to 2050 [1] Company Summary - Oklo's reactor development projects are expected to be primarily financed through debt, supported by investment tax credits, which could enhance long-term returns on capital with limited equity dilution [1] - The company is positioned as a vertically integrated distributed nuclear energy provider, capable of reshaping the nuclear energy sector [3] Industry Summary - There is a growing global demand for clean, baseload power, with predictions that nuclear generation will represent a larger share of the energy mix in the coming decades [3] - Canaccord applied a weighted average cost of capital slightly above 7% and a long-term growth rate of roughly 6%, acknowledging concerns about potential overvaluation in AI-related markets while emphasizing Oklo's strategic position in the expanding nuclear energy landscape [2]
摩根士丹利:泸州老窖-2024 - 2025 年第一季度业绩符合预期;宣布股息政策
摩根· 2025-05-06 02:28
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luzhou Lao Jiao Co. Ltd is Equal-weight [5] Core Insights - The company reported 1.8% sales growth and 0.4% net profit growth year-over-year in 1Q25, which aligns with estimates [8] - The dividend payout ratio increased to 65% in 2024 from 60% in 2023, with targets of 70% and 75% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [8] - The company aims for steady revenue growth in 2025, despite a challenging market environment [8] Revenue and Profitability - Mid-high end liquor sales rose 3% year-over-year, accounting for 88.4% of total liquor sales, while low-end liquor sales increased by 6% in 2024 [2] - Operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 1.0 percentage points year-over-year in 1Q25, with a narrowed gross profit margin (GPM) due to a lower product mix [2] - In 2024, OPM contracted by 0.7 percentage points, driven by a 2.8 percentage point decrease in GPM, partially offset by savings in operating expenses [2] Financial Position - Customer advances were Rmb3.1 billion in 1Q25, down from Rmb4.0 billion in 4Q24 and Rmb2.5 billion in 1Q24 [3] - The net cash position improved to Rmb31.4 billion in 1Q25 from Rmb29.0 billion in 4Q24 and Rmb21.4 billion in 1Q24 [3] - Cash from selling products decreased by 7% year-over-year in 1Q25 to Rmb9.9 billion [3] Future Projections - The company projects net profit growth of 1.7% year-over-year in 2024, which is 4% below consensus estimates [8] - The price target for the stock is set at Rmb122.00, indicating a downside of 3% from the closing price of Rmb125.36 on April 25, 2025 [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the fiscal years ending in 2024, 2025, and 2026 are Rmb9.58, Rmb10.10, and Rmb10.74 respectively [5]
海螺水泥:2024 年第四季度业绩未达预期
2025-03-27 07:29
Summary of Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd - **Industry**: Cement and Clinker - **Region**: Asia Pacific Key Financial Results - **4Q24 Performance**: - Net profit of Rmb1.5 billion, representing a 42% increase YoY and a 33% increase QoQ [1] - Full year 2024 net profit of Rmb7.7 billion, down 26% YoY, below consensus estimate of Rmb8.6 billion [1] - Dividend proposed at Rmb0.71 per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 49% YoY [1] Shipment and Production Data - **Total Shipments**: - 271 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.5% YoY [2] - 4Q24 shipments of self-produced products at 73 million tons, down 11% YoY but up 5% QoQ [2] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: - ASP for self-produced cement and clinker was Rmb246 per ton in 2024, down 10% YoY [3] - Estimated ASP in 4Q24 at Rmb265 per ton, an increase of 8% YoY and 12% QoQ [3] Cost and Profitability - **Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)**: - Production cost rose by Rmb7 per ton QoQ despite stable coal prices [3] - **Gross Profit**: - Estimated unit gross profit in 4Q24 at Rmb75 per ton, up from Rmb55 in 4Q23 and Rmb53 in 3Q24 [3] 2025 Guidance - **Capacity Expansion**: - Targeting an addition of 19.6 million tons of cement and 27.8 million square meters of concrete capacity in 2025 [4] - **Shipments**: - Expected total shipments of self-produced cement and clinker to remain flat at 268 million tons YoY [4] - **Capital Expenditure**: - Budgeted capex of Rmb11.9 billion for 2025, down from Rmb15.6 billion in 2024 [4] Market Outlook and Risks - **Market Rating**: - Stock rating is Overweight with a price target of HK$24.50, indicating a 4% upside from the current price of HK$23.60 [6] - **Risks to Upside**: - Stronger-than-expected infrastructure demand from major projects [10] - Stricter environmental regulations leading to tighter clinker supplies [10] - **Risks to Downside**: - Weaker-than-expected property demand and potential government intervention in cement pricing [11][15] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately Rmb128.273 billion [6] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: HK$152 million [6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Forecast**: - EPS for 2024 estimated at Rmb1.66, with projections of Rmb2.11 for 2025 [6] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, operational insights, and market outlook for Anhui Conch Cement Co. Ltd, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investors and stakeholders.