23 February 2026 | 1:39AM HKT Equity Research China Spirits Tracker: 2026 LNY retail sales slightly better than expected; Resilient super premium with Moutai/Wuliangye LNY consumption sentiments: Pax mobility: The pax mobility for LNY holiday (Feb 15 - 21), up by c.9% yoy and the whole Chunyun window recorded 5.3bn (Feb 2-20). Strong homecoming flows translated into robust on-premise activity: daily average sales of key retail and catering enterprises rose +10.6% yoy over the first two holiday days (MOFCOM) ...

February 23, 2026 01:41 PM GMT China/Hong Kong Consumer | Asia Pacific Post-CNY F&B and Gold & Jewelry Channel Check Takeaways The call with a multi-categories distributor reflects improvement in demand in this CNY holiday season, which is in line with market expectation and our previous pre-CNY channel checks. Key Takeaways Liquor - Moutai and WLY saw growth YTD in the distributor's regions as lower pricing drove good volume. They have completed their Feitian Moutai orders for 1Q (40% of annual budget). La ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: China/Hong Kong Consumer sector, specifically Food & Beverage (F&B) and Dairy industries [1] - **Current Market Sentiment**: The overall industry view is rated as "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating expectations of performance in line with the broader market [5] Key Insights on Liquor Market - **Moutai Sales Performance**: - Strong demand for Feitian Moutai ahead of the Chinese New Year (CNY), particularly due to the launch of a new 500ml variant on iMoutai [2] - Vintage and Zodiac Moutai sales are reported as weak, but overall Moutai sales have exceeded expectations [2][7] - **Regional Disparities**: - Eastern region shows a positive trend with low channel inventory and improved pricing, attributed to early destocking efforts since 2024 [3] - Southern region experiences a double-digit decline in overall liquor demand year-to-date (YTD), with Moutai being the only brand showing growth [4] Insights on Dairy Market - **UHT Milk Demand**: - Demand for UHT milk has improved due to seasonal discounts, with YTD sales growth reported as flat or slightly positive [4] - Inventory levels are described as healthy, indicating a stable supply situation [4] Additional Observations - **Market Dynamics**: - Demand trends remain uneven across regions, with the eastern region outperforming others [7] - Anticipation of a post-CNY price correction due to low season effects and continued destocking expected in the second quarter of 2026 [4] Analyst Contact Information - **Analysts**: Lillian Lou and Wilkins Tong from Morgan Stanley Asia Limited are responsible for the report [5] Important Disclosures - **Conflict of Interest**: Morgan Stanley may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with companies covered in the research [5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, focusing on the liquor and dairy sectors within the China/Hong Kong consumer market.

Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai's health liquor division is actively seeking a nationwide exclusive distributor for its sealed liquor business to enhance brand competitiveness and customer loyalty [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company aims to expand its sealed liquor business in response to market demand [1] - The recruitment announcement indicates a target sales revenue of 200 million yuan for the sealed liquor business from 2026 to 2028 [1] Group 2: Partnership Requirements - The company requires that the annual sales task must not be less than 60% of the signed contract's annual target [1] - The assessment period for annual tasks is based on the natural year corresponding to the contract signing date [1]

There will be a fair amount of alcohol consumption at various Super Bowl parties. The question is how much compared to years past as consumers lean into healthier lifestyles. US spirit sales fell 2.2% to 36.4% billion in 2025 according to new data out of the distilled spirits council of the US.Since I'm a optimistic guy by nature, I want to zoom in on one alcohol brand seemingly bucking this sobering industry trend. That's Grant Carmino, a tequila brand co-founded by comedian, entertainer, and entrepreneur ...

Core Insights - The current Chinese liquor market is undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by "policy adjustments, consumption structure transformation, and stock competition" [1] - Traditional business banquets and government receptions are declining, leading to a shift from "entertaining economy" to family consumption scenarios, with smaller bottles and lower alcohol content becoming more popular [1] - The trend is moving towards light social interactions based on "interest + experience," transforming liquor from a tool for socializing to an "emotional companion" [1] Group 1: Brand Strategy - Wuliangye's "Five Great Toasts" campaign, featuring Olympic champion Wu Dajing, aims to connect with consumers through emotional storytelling, focusing on real-life scenarios rather than traditional brand messaging [3][5] - The campaign emphasizes five toasts that reflect various aspects of life, such as "toasting the New Year" and "toasting life," integrating liquor into family and social contexts [5][6] - The narrative builds a connection between the brand and consumers, aligning with the industry's shift from functional demands to emotional recognition [6] Group 2: Quality and Craftsmanship - Wuliangye emphasizes "better quality" through a rigorous brewing process, utilizing high-quality raw materials and adhering to strict production standards [8] - The brand's commitment to craftsmanship parallels Wu Dajing's journey, highlighting the pursuit of excellence in both sports and liquor production [9] - The integration of the "Five Great Toasts" into the Spring Festival narrative reinforces the emotional connection and cultural significance of the brand, enhancing its market positioning [9]

Summary of the Conference Call on Chinese Liquor Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Chinese liquor sector**, particularly the performance of **Kweichow Moutai Company Ltd.** and its market dynamics [1][7]. Key Insights - The liquor sector experienced a **share price rally of approximately 10%** on January 29, 2026, compared to a flat performance for the SSE, driven by sentiment related to the property sector and a rebound in wholesale prices due to the Chinese New Year (CNY) peak season [1]. - The rally is viewed as **tactical**, with short-term support from fund flows and sentiment improvement, while fundamental demand is expected to take time to recover [1]. - **Moutai** is highlighted as the most solid investment opportunity within the sector [1]. Demand Insights - Recent channel checks indicate that overall demand for CNY is likely experiencing a **year-over-year decline** [10]. - Moutai's pre-CNY sales showed **positive growth**, with distributor prepayments at **33%**, up from **26-27%** the previous year [10]. - Other brands are facing **double-digit declines** in sales, with prepayment pace lower than last year [10]. Pricing Trends - Moutai's wholesale prices are currently between **RMB 780-800 per bottle**, which is better than expected [10]. - The impact of the "unboxing sales" policy and the termination of wholesale pricing in 2021 has raised concerns about future pricing trends [3]. Institutional Ownership - Institutional ownership as a percentage of free float has shown an increasing trend, reaching **58%** by December 2025, indicating growing confidence among institutional investors [5]. Risks and Valuation - The valuation methodology for Moutai is based on a **discounted cash flow** approach, with key assumptions including an **11% WACC** and a **2% long-term growth rate** [11]. - Upside risks include a quicker recovery in high-end liquor consumption and a faster rebound in Moutai's wholesale prices [13]. - Downside risks involve lower-than-expected volume growth for high-end spirits and continued declines in wholesale and retail prices of Moutai [13]. Conclusion - The Chinese liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is currently experiencing a sentiment-driven rally, but fundamental demand recovery is still pending. Investors should be cautious of the potential risks while considering the growing institutional interest in the sector [1][10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Shares in Remy Cointreau increased following the announcement of third-quarter sales that exceeded market expectations [1] Group 1 - The company reported third-quarter sales that surpassed analysts' forecasts [1]

Core Insights - Stoli vodka has transitioned from Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization to Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation, indicating a significant decline in its operational viability [1][2][4]. Company Situation - Creditors no longer believe Stoli can successfully reorganize under Chapter 11, leading to a liquidation process [2]. - The inability to secure approval from secured creditors for a restructuring plan was a critical factor in Stoli's bankruptcy transition [4][5]. - Stoli has opted for Chapter 7 liquidation, which will involve appointing a trustee to sell the brand [6]. Industry Trends - There is a notable decline in liquor sales, attributed to younger generations consuming less alcohol and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on reducing alcohol consumption [8]. - NielsenIQ reported a 3% year-over-year decrease in total beverage alcohol sales, amounting to $53 billion for the 26 weeks ending July 5 [9].

Summary of the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Sector**: China Consumer Sector - **Key Themes for 2026**: 1. **Lukewarm Demand**: Overall retail sales growth slowed to 1.3% YoY in November 2025, down from 2.9% in October 2025, with forecasts of 2.6% growth in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, reflecting a deceleration in GDP growth to 4.5% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027 [10][10] 2. **Price Deflation**: Persistent price deflation in consumer products, with significant price drops in categories like apparel and catering, impacting overall industry profitability [10][10] 3. **Consumer Preferences**: Young adults are prioritizing differentiated design, experience, and social value in their purchases [2][2] 4. **Overseas Expansion**: Companies are expected to expand internationally to counteract slow domestic growth, facing operational risks such as tariffs and supply chain management [10][10] 5. **Aging Demographics**: Challenges and opportunities arise from an aging population, with a decline in birth rates and a growing proportion of individuals over 65 years old [10][10] Financial Projections - **Earnings Growth**: Sector sales and earnings are projected to grow by 7.1% and 12.2% YoY in 2026, respectively, with a projected earnings CAGR of 10.3% from 2025 to 2027 [6][6] - **Valuation**: China consumer stocks are trading at 17x 2026E P/E, compared to ASEAN's 19x, Japan's 28x, and India's 54x, with a dividend yield of 4.2% [6][6] Investment Recommendations - **Top Picks**: - **Laopu**: Expected to benefit from experience-led growth with a disciplined store count and strong earnings growth of 40% in 2026 [20][20] - **Luckin**: Forecasted to achieve a 28% increase in net profit, driven by a consumer-centered vision and strong digitalization [20][20] - **Guming**: Anticipated to net add 3.3k stores in 2026, with a 20% YoY increase in core net profit [20][20] - **Mao Ge Ping (MGP)**: Positioned to benefit from experience-driven consumption trends, expecting 30% earnings growth in 2026 [20][20] - **YUMC**: Strong growth expected from KFC and a turnaround for Pizza Hut, with a target of 30K stores by 2030 [20][20] - **Pop Mart**: Despite recent stock price declines, expected to maintain strong earnings with a focus on new product launches [20][20] - **Top Avoids**: - **Bud APAC**: Concerns over weak consumption sentiment and high-end market exposure, with forecasts of declining sales and EBITDA [27][27] - **Yanghe**: Risks associated with channel inventory build-up and rising competition [27][27] Additional Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: Consumers are expected to continue spending on affordable treats and differentiated products, with a focus on experiences rather than price [10][10] - **Market Dynamics**: Increased competition is leading to accelerated consolidation within the industry, with leaders expected to gain market share through cost-saving initiatives and digital technologies [10][10] - **Demographic Trends**: Marriage registrations dropped significantly, indicating a shrinking young population and potential further declines in birth rates [12][12] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the China consumer sector, along with specific investment recommendations and potential risks.