January 29, 2026 12:04 PM GMT China/Hong Kong Consumer | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Chinese Liquor: Initial Thoughts on The Rally We think the liquor sector's share price rally on Jan. 29 (~10% on average vs. flat for SSE) is sentiment-driven with the positive news flow on property sector (link), and recent rebound of wholesales prices from the CNY peak season effect. The share price rally could be tactical, in our view, with fund flow and sentiment improvement serving as short-term support, ...

Core Viewpoint - Shares in Remy Cointreau increased following the announcement of third-quarter sales that exceeded market expectations [1] Group 1 - The company reported third-quarter sales that surpassed analysts' forecasts [1]

Core Insights - Stoli vodka has transitioned from Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization to Chapter 7 bankruptcy liquidation, indicating a significant decline in its operational viability [1][2][4]. Company Situation - Creditors no longer believe Stoli can successfully reorganize under Chapter 11, leading to a liquidation process [2]. - The inability to secure approval from secured creditors for a restructuring plan was a critical factor in Stoli's bankruptcy transition [4][5]. - Stoli has opted for Chapter 7 liquidation, which will involve appointing a trustee to sell the brand [6]. Industry Trends - There is a notable decline in liquor sales, attributed to younger generations consuming less alcohol and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on reducing alcohol consumption [8]. - NielsenIQ reported a 3% year-over-year decrease in total beverage alcohol sales, amounting to $53 billion for the 26 weeks ending July 5 [9].

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research 18 January 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Consumer Strategy Stock Ideas for the Year of the Horse The top-5 investment themes for the China consumer sector in 2026 are: (1) end- demand ...

市场竞争的加剧同样让白酒行业举步维艰。除了国内众多白酒品牌之间的激烈厮杀，进口酒的大量涌入也抢占了一部分市场份额。葡萄酒、威士忌等洋酒凭 借时尚的包装、多样的口感和文化营销，吸引了不少消费者的目光。而且，新兴的低度酒品牌如雨后春笋般涌现，以其低酒精度、多种口味和亲民的价格， 迅速在年轻消费群体中打开了市场。 不过，尽管面临诸多挑战，白酒行业也并非毫无机会重回巅峰。随着消费者健康意识的提高，白酒企业可以加大对健康白酒的研发和推广。例如，开发低酒 精度、富含有益成分的白酒产品，既能满足消费者对健康的需求，又能让他们品尝到白酒的独特风味。同时，利用现代科技对白酒生产工艺进行创新，提高 白酒的品质和口感稳定性。 白酒，作为中国传统饮品，承载着悠久的历史与深厚的文化底蕴。长期以来，白酒在国内市场占据着重要地位，不仅是社交场合的常客，也是投资收藏的热 门品类。然而近年来，白酒行业遭遇了诸多挑战，曾经的辉煌不再，何时能重回巅峰成为行业内外关注的焦点。 曾经，白酒行业有过一段无比辉煌的时期。在经济快速发展、消费升级的大背景下，白酒消费市场持续火爆。高端白酒品牌凭借其高品质、稀缺性和深厚的 品牌文化，成为市场上的宠儿，价格不断 ...

Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Kweichow Moutai - **Stock Code**: 600519.SS - **Industry**: Spirits Key Points Market-Oriented Operation Plan - Kweichow Moutai announced a shift to a more market-driven pricing framework to optimize channel investments and safeguard profitability, focusing on demand dynamics [1] - The new strategy includes: 1. Adjusting product portfolio to a pyramid structure by pricing tier 2. Transitioning from a traditional sales model to a multi-dimensional model including direct sales, distribution, agency, and consignment 3. Expanding sales channels to include online, offline retail, restaurants, and private VIP clients 4. Implementing a market-oriented pricing system for various sales models [1] Pricing Adjustments - Suggested retail prices (RSP) for key SKUs: - Feitian Moutai vintage (2019-2024): Rmb1,909 to Rmb2,659 per bottle - Feitian Moutai 2026: Rmb1,499 per bottle - Non-standard Moutai SKUs: RSP cut by approximately 20-30% [1] - Ex-factory prices for distributors of key non-standard Moutai products reduced by 7-37% [1] Impact on Channel Profitability - Price adjustments are expected to stabilize the wholesale price system, boost distributor confidence, and improve market supply/demand dynamics [2] - Estimated channel margins for Jingpin Moutai and Moutai 15-Year now approach 20% following the adjustments [2] - The adjustments are anticipated to expand market share and consumer base for strategic SKUs, solidifying flagship products' market status [2] Sales Volume and Earnings Revisions - Sales estimates revised down by 5-9% for 2025-2027, primarily due to lower Moutai spirits volume and softer ASP trends [7] - Expected sales/NP decline of -1%/-2% in 2025 and -1%/-1% in 2026 [7] - The 12-month price target is revised down to Rmb1,553 from Rmb1,691, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7] Theoretical Sales Impact Analysis - The pricing and volume quota adjustments could imply up to Rmb30 billion sales reduction in 2026 [6][12] - Improved supply/demand dynamics and better product affordability are expected to create favorable conditions for wholesale price recovery and retail sales rebound in the second half of 2026 [6] Product Matrix Strategy - Moutai is restructuring its product offerings into a pyramid structure: 1. Base tier: Feitian Moutai 500ml 2. Mid tier: Jingpin and Zodiac 3. Apex tier: Vintage spirits with controlled shipments to enhance value [17] Channel Strategy - Moutai is developing five parallel sales channels: wholesale, offline retail, online retail, catering, and private traffic, focusing on an integrated online and offline transformation [21] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include potential regulatory changes, environmental concerns, slower macroeconomic recovery, capacity constraints, and volatility in US interest rates [37] Conclusion - Kweichow Moutai's strategic shift towards a market-oriented pricing model and channel expansion aims to enhance profitability and market share amidst changing consumer dynamics and industry cycles [2][20]

Group 1 - The company *ST Rock has announced a preliminary estimate indicating a projected revenue of less than 300 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, with total profit, net profit, or net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses expected to be negative [1] - According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange listing rules, if the audited revenue for 2025 is below 300 million yuan and the lowest of total profit, net profit, or net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is negative, the company's stock may be delisted due to financial criteria [1] - Additionally, Shanghai Guijiu has recently launched a clearance live broadcast with a significant discount, selling its 2023 53-degree 500ml product at 67 yuan per bottle [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor market has seen a significant rebound in retail prices for the top ten products, indicating a recovery in market sentiment after a period of decline [1]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten liquor products reached 8969 yuan, an increase of 44 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The market exhibited a broad upward trend, with notable increases in prices for several key products, including: - Qinghua Lang: up 14 yuan per bottle - Xijiu Junpin: up 11 yuan per bottle - Wuliangye Pu Wu Eight Generation: up 7 yuan per bottle - Gujing Gonggu 20: up 5 yuan per bottle - Premium Moutai: up 4 yuan per bottle - Feitian Moutai and Qinghua Fen 20: up 3 yuan per bottle - Shuijing Jian Nan Chun: up 1 yuan per bottle [1]. Price Adjustments - Kweichow Moutai has reduced the factory contract prices for several products, with some reductions exceeding 1000 yuan: - Chen Nian Guizhou Moutai (15): reduced from 5399 yuan to 3409 yuan (a decrease of 1990 yuan) - Premium Moutai: reduced from 2969 yuan to 1859 yuan (a decrease of 1110 yuan) - Moutai 1935: adjusted from 798 yuan to 668 yuan (a decrease of 130 yuan) [3]. - Following these adjustments, the average selling price by distributors has decreased by approximately 200 yuan, leading to a reported increase in consumer purchases by at least 15% [3].

南方+记者获悉，曾经一瓶难求、价格飙升至近两千元的茅台1935降出厂价至668元/瓶。2025年，茅台1935合同价798元/瓶。这意味着每瓶降价130元。 茅台1935是贵州茅台酒股份有限公司2022年1月推出的酱香系列酒核心大单品，定位千元价格带，承接飞天茅台之下的腰部市场。 上市首年销售额破50亿元，2023年达110亿元，2024 年约120亿元，是行业成长最快的百亿级单品之一，对茅台系列酒营收贡献接近五成。 茅台1935市场价格经历了过山车般的波动。上市初期，这款酒曾被市场热炒至超过1800元/瓶，甚至一度接近1900元。然而自2023年以来，其价格一路走 低。当前在电商平台，茅台1935的售价已普遍跌破600元/瓶。部分非官方渠道的售价甚至低至519元/瓶，与1188元/瓶的零售指导价相比，已跌去56.31%。 这一措施曾使茅台1935的批发价短暂回升至850元/瓶，但随后又迅速回落至原有水平。 此外，贵州茅台在电商平台以998元/瓶的预售价推出茅台1935"高端款"，这被视为主动将产品锚定在千元以下价格带的一次尝试。 茅台1935所在的茅台酱香系列酒板块，增长势头也在减弱。贵州茅台2025年半年 ...

Summary of Kweichow Moutai Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS) - **Industry**: China Consumer Staples Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Adaptation and Pricing Strategy - Kweichow Moutai aims to implement a more commercialized pricing system by adapting to market conditions and prioritizing market-oriented transformation, including pricing adjustments for 2026 [1] - The company plans to maintain stable overall supply to match demand, avoiding high price fluctuations, and will reduce allocation of higher-priced non-standard SKUs [1] 2. Product Supply and Quota Adjustments - Overall supply will remain stable in 2026, with dynamic adjustments to the product mix based on market conditions [1] - Specific strategies include: - Reducing non-standard Feitian SKUs (100ml/200ml/1000ml) to increase market share of standard Feitian - Upgrading Jingpin Moutai quality to strengthen its position as the second major SKU - Decreasing quotas for Zodiac and Vintage Moutai, and discontinuing Caiyou Zhenpin supply [1] 3. Pricing Expectations - Management emphasized the need for reasonable and stable price expectations to avoid high fluctuations in wholesale prices of Feitian and other Moutai products [1] - The company will promote "price marketization reform" focusing on market conditions and volume-price balance [1] 4. Channel Development - Moutai will enhance channel diversity and expand its customer base by monitoring market and channel capacity to reduce inventory pressure [1] - The company plans to build integrated online-offline and traditional-modern complementary channel networks, leveraging the i-Moutai platform [1] 5. Consumer Experience and Service Enhancement - Focus on enhancing consumer experience and strengthening the channel ecosystem resilience [1] - Plans to deploy "three stores and one center" (flagship stores, image stores, specialty stores, and cultural experience centers) and build a comprehensive anti-counterfeiting system [1] 6. Financial Performance and Price Target - Recent improvements in wholesale prices for various Moutai products, with Original case Feitian Moutai's price rising to Rmb1,560 per bottle from Rmb1,495 [6] - The company maintains a Buy rating with expected sales and net profit growth of 4% and 3% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price of Rmb1,691 based on a 23.4x 2026E P/E [6][10] 7. Risks and Challenges - Key downside risks include potential regulatory changes, environmental pollution, slower macroeconomic recovery, capacity constraints, and volatility in US rate hikes [9] Additional Important Information - The company is focusing on long-term value creation through reasonable profit distribution and healthy channel development [5] - Moutai is establishing professional teams to enhance service quality, including training specialists in various roles [5] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from Kweichow Moutai's conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market adaptation, and financial outlook.