Pool Corp (POOL) Q2 2025 Earnings Call July 24, 2025 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsMelanie Hart - SVP, CFO & TreasurerPeter Arvan - President and Chief Executive OfficerRyan Merkel - Co-Group Head–IndustrialsTrey Grooms - Managing DirectorW. Andrew Carter - Vice PresidentScott Schneeberger - Managing DirectorGarik Shmois - Managing DirectorCollin Verron - DirectorShaun Calnan - Equity Research AssociateConference Call ParticipantsSusan Maklari - Senior Equity Research AnalystDavid Manthey - Senior Researc ...

Consumer Spending Trends - Bank of America Institute data indicates a 2% increase in debit and credit card spending in June [1] - While consumer spending rebounded in June, it didn't fully offset earlier declines, suggesting a cooling trend [2] - Lower-income households are primarily driving the pullback in spending, while higher-income household spending accelerated by 1.2% [5] - Discretionary travel spending is declining, but restaurant spending shows a dichotomy, with fewer households dining out but spending more per transaction [6][7] Income and Wage Growth - Higher-income households experienced accelerated after-tax wage growth, nearing 3%, for the third consecutive month [9] - Lower-income households saw decelerated after-tax wage growth, increasing by 1.6% compared to 1.8% previously [10] Credit Card Usage - Younger generations entering a challenging labor market are a focal point regarding credit card usage [11]

Core Insights - Macy's, Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results with both top and bottom lines exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, although both metrics declined compared to the previous year [1][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were 16 cents per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 14 cents, but down 40.7% from 27 cents in the prior year [3] - Net sales reached $4,599 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $4,458 million, but decreased by 5.1% year over year [3] - Comparable sales fell by 2% on an owned basis and 1.2% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis compared to the previous year [3] Brand Performance - Macy's brand comps declined by 2.9% on an owned basis and 2.1% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis [6] - Bloomingdale's brand saw a 3% increase in comps on an owned basis and 3.8% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace basis [6] - Bluemercury brand experienced a 1.5% increase in comps on an owned basis, marking the 17th consecutive quarter of growth [6] Margins and Expenses - Gross margin remained flat at 39.2%, with improved merchandise margins offset by increased delivery expenses [7] - Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $1.91 billion, up 0.1% year over year, with SG&A as a percentage of total revenues rising 170 basis points to 39.9% [8][9] - Adjusted EBITDA was $324 million, down 11% from $364 million in the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.8%, down 50 basis points year over year [9] Cash and Equity Overview - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $932 million and long-term debt of $2.77 billion [10] - Merchandise inventories declined by 0.5% year over year [10] - The company repurchased 8.7 million shares for $101 million, with $1.3 billion remaining under its $2 billion share repurchase authorization [11] Guidance for Fiscal 2025 - Macy's updated its annual guidance, expecting net sales between $21 billion and $21.4 billion for fiscal 2025 [14] - Comparable owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace sales are projected to decline by 0.5-2% year over year [15] - Adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $1.60 and $2.00, down from the previous estimate of $2.05-$2.25 [16]

Target reported a 3.8% decrease in comparable sales for the first quarter and said it expects to see a low single-digit decline in sales for fiscal 2025.“In the first quarter, our team and our business faced an exceptionally challenging environment that affected our performance with declines in both traffic and sales, most notably in our discretionary categories,” Target Chair and CEO Brian Cornell said Wednesday (May 21) during the retailer’s quarterly earnings call.Cornell attributed the drop in part to f ...

Core Insights - Two major retailers, Target Corp and Lowe's Companies Inc, reported mixed earnings results, leading to declines in their stock prices due to cautious outlooks and macroeconomic challenges [1] Target Corp - Target's stock decreased by 7% to $91.32 after missing first-quarter revenue estimates and lowering its full-year sales outlook [2] - The retailer reported earnings of $2.03 per share, exceeding estimates, but revenue of $24.53 billion fell short of the $24.52 billion consensus [2] - Year-to-date, Target's stock is down 32.4%, with its 50-day moving average hindering any rallies this month [2] Lowe's Companies Inc - Lowe's stock fell by 1.4% to $227.79, despite beating earnings expectations with first-quarter earnings of $2.92 per share, compared to the expected $2.88 [3] - Revenue for Lowe's was $20.93 billion, slightly missing expectations [3] - The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook, projecting earnings between $12.15 and $12.40 per share and comparable sales growth between flat and 1% [3] Options Activity - Both Target and Lowe's are experiencing heightened intraday options activity, with volumes at four times the average pace for each [4] - Target has seen 2,884 calls and 2,063 puts traded, while Lowe's has recorded 2,908 calls and 2,075 puts [4]

Industry Overview - The restaurant industry is navigating a dynamic environment influenced by digital innovation, changing consumer expectations, and economic pressures [1] - Companies are facing tariff-related uncertainties but are likely benefiting from alternative raw material solutions and compelling product offerings [1] Earnings Expectations - Total earnings for the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector are expected to rise by 1.6% year over year, with revenues projected to increase by 4% year over year [5] - Potbelly Corporation, Dine Brands Global, Inc., and Bloomin' Brands, Inc. are set to report their first-quarter earnings on May 7 [1][7] Company-Specific Insights Potbelly Corporation - Potbelly's first-quarter performance is expected to benefit from digital momentum and the relaunch of its Perks loyalty program, along with menu innovation [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Potbelly's first-quarter 2025 revenues is $112.6 million, indicating a growth of 1.3% from the previous year, while EPS is expected to show a loss of 2 cents, a deterioration of 300% [10][11] Dine Brands Global, Inc. - Dine Brands' performance is likely to be supported by operational improvements and brand revitalization efforts, including the Applebee's Looking Good reimage program [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dine Brands' first-quarter 2025 revenues is $215.3 million, indicating a growth of 4.4%, while EPS is expected to be $1.18, a decline of 11.3% from the previous year [13] Bloomin' Brands, Inc. - Bloomin' Brands is expected to benefit from off-premise channels, remodeling efforts, and technology upgrades [14] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Bloomin' Brands' first-quarter 2025 revenues is $1.04 billion, indicating a deterioration of 13.3%, with EPS expected to be 57 cents, a decline of 18.6% [16]

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