Core Insights - Young adults and the UK's lowest-income households remain financially worse off compared to pre-cost-of-living crisis levels, despite a slight increase in average disposable income in January 2026 [1] Group 1: Household Income and Spending - Average household spending power increased by £4.24 year-on-year in January, reaching £261 per week after essentials [2] - Total average household income was £1,067 weekly, with £649 allocated to essential outgoings and £157 to taxes [2] Group 2: Discretionary Income Trends - Individuals under 30 and those aged 30-49 experienced declines in discretionary income, remaining below pre-crisis levels, with younger adults having £175 per week available compared to £195 in March 2021 [3] - The lowest-earning fifth of households faced a £71 shortfall between income and essential costs in January, with an estimated decline of £1.91 per week compared to the previous year [4] Group 3: Income Disparity and Inflation - The purchasing-power gap between the richest and poorest households widened by £18.89 year-on-year [5] - Inflation rates for food and non-alcoholic beverages moderated to 3.6%, while housing and utilities costs rose by 4.5% year-on-year [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Inflation is expected to approach the Bank of England's 2% target by the second half of 2026, which may support discretionary income growth, although weaker earnings growth could offset some gains [6] - The Asda Income Tracker indicates that nominal discretionary incomes have seen modest year-on-year growth, primarily due to slowing inflation [7]

Core Insights - The personal savings rate in the U.S. has significantly decreased by 32%, dropping from 6.2% in early 2024 to 4.2% by late 2025 [2][4] - Consumption has surged by 8.6%, while disposable income has only increased by 6.3% year-over-year, indicating a concerning trend where spending outpaces income growth [3][5] - Absolute savings dollars have fallen by 28.3% from their peak, undermining long-term financial stability [4][6] Spending Patterns - Discretionary spending has increased, particularly in recreational goods, which saw a 5.7% rise, indicating a shift towards non-essential purchases despite rising borrowing costs [5][6] - The Federal Funds Rate is currently at 3.75%, leading to credit card rates between 15% and 25%, which could turn discretionary purchases into long-term debt burdens [5][6] Financial Implications - A household earning $75,000 saving at the current rate of 4.2% would only save $3,150 annually, compared to $7,500 if following a 10% savings guideline, highlighting the long-term wealth-building potential lost [6][7] - The current financial behavior suggests that many Americans are prioritizing consumption over savings, which could lead to diminished financial security and fewer options in the future [7]

Core Insights - The Indian government has reduced the Goods and Services Tax (GST) on baby products from 12% to 5%, which is expected to boost demand in the sector [1][6] - The domestic baby care market in India is experiencing double-digit growth, driven by rising disposable incomes and aspirational demand [2][6] - Chicco, a brand under the Italian Artsana Group, is expanding its retail presence and product offerings in response to increasing discretionary demand [1][6] Industry Overview - The Indian baby care products market generated annual sales of approximately US $4.94 billion in the current year and is projected to reach US $8.61 billion by 2030 [2] - Per capita spending on childcare products in India is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2023 to 2028, outpacing growth in larger markets like the United States and China [6] - The sector has attracted significant investor interest, exemplified by Reliance Retail Ventures acquiring a 51% stake in the infant brand Ed-a-Mamma [6] Competitive Landscape - Chicco competes with major brands such as Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Mothercare, and Mother Sparsh, as well as numerous direct-to-consumer brands in the infant personal care market [5][6] - Chicco has a presence in 120 countries and operates over 360 single-brand stores, with the United States being its second-largest market after Italy [5] Future Plans - Chicco plans to open a dozen new stores in the coming year, leveraging the growth of quick commerce platforms that are outpacing traditional physical store growth [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on near-term growth momentum despite a strong GDP print, suggesting the need for more policy stimulus to boost investment demand and support the labor market [6]. Core Insights - China's 2Q25 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 5.4% growth in 1Q25, but above market consensus of 5.1% [1][8]. - Industrial production (IP) showed a surprising increase to 6.8% in June, driven by resilient export activities, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Retail sales growth moderated to 4.8% in June, lower than the previous month and consensus expectations, indicating potential weakness in domestic demand [4][8]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) growth slowed to 2.8% year-to-date, with a significant contraction in property investment at -11.2% year-on-year [5][8]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, with disposable income per capita increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - 2Q25 GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, with a sequential increase of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][8]. - In the first half of 2025, real GDP growth reached 5.3%, surpassing the annual policy target of "around 5%" [1]. Industrial Production - IP growth rose to 6.8% in June from 5.8% in May, with manufacturing IP accelerating to 7.4% [3][8]. - Growth was observed in 36 out of 41 industries, with notable increases in industrial robots and integrated circuits [3]. Retail Sales - Retail sales increased by 4.8% year-on-year in June, down from 6.3% in May, influenced by earlier promotions and subsidy halts [4][8]. - Catering services saw a significant slowdown, with growth dropping to 0.9% year-on-year [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - FAI growth moderated to 2.8% year-to-date, with a single-month growth of only 0.5% year-on-year [5][8]. - Property investment continued to decline sharply, with a contraction of -11.2% year-on-year [5]. Labor Market and Income - The urban unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0% in June, with average weekly hours worked at 48.5 [10][11]. - Disposable income per capita reached RMB 9,661 in 2Q, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [11].