Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation (NYSE: ACRE ) experienced a substantial deterioration in its dividend coverage and loan performance last year which triggered two dividend cuts, the latest one cutting the dividend down by a whopping 40% to $0.15 per share perA financial researcher and avid investor with a keen eye for innovation and disruption, as well as growth buy-outs and value stocks. Keeping an eye on the pace of high tech and early growth companies, I write about current events and the biggest ...

Group 1: Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund - The fund has maintained monthly distributions for over a decade but has not covered its net investment income for the last seven years, leading to a decline in its net asset value (NAV) [2][3] - The fund's NAV currently stands at $11.50, and it has increased leverage to boost investment income, which is not a sustainable strategy [3][4] - The market is pricing the fund at a 28.5% premium to its NAV, indicating a potential mispricing [4] Group 2: Whirlpool - Whirlpool is positioned to benefit from U.S. tariffs and the administration's support for American manufacturing, particularly against Asian competitors [5] - The company faces challenges from a weak housing market, which affects discretionary appliance sales, crucial for its earnings [6] - Whirlpool's annual dividend consumes $390 million in cash, while expected free cash flow (FCF) for 2025 is projected between $500 million and $600 million [9] - The company has $1.85 billion in debt maturing in 2025 and plans to refinance $700 million, but this could be jeopardized if earnings guidance is missed [10] Group 3: UPS - UPS's dividend may be at risk, and cutting it could enhance the company's investment potential [11] - The company initially estimated generating $5.7 billion in FCF while paying $5.5 billion in dividends, but guidance has become uncertain due to economic impacts from tariffs [11][12] - UPS is intentionally reducing lower-margin Amazon delivery volumes, which could further affect its financial outlook [12] - A dividend cut could allow UPS to allocate more earnings towards investments that improve return on equity (RoE) [13][15]

We have traded, analyzed and watched REITs every day for decades (13 years personally and over 30 years for 2nd Market Capital) and in so doing we have noticed a consistent source of mispricing: Dividend cut announcements. Specifically, dividend cuts consistently have the same reaction in the market regardless of the circumstances around them. The REIT share price plummets on the news. The source of opportunity here is that not all cuts are equally bad. There is a huge gap between the following: Forced to ...