Dollar Reserve Currency Status
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US Losing Ability To 'Tax The World' To Fund Deficits, Warns Thomas Massie Amid Diminishing Dollar Dominance - Invesco DB USD Index Bearish ETF (ARCA:UDN), WisdomTree Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Bullish Fun
Benzinga· 2026-01-19 09:19
Core Viewpoint - The United States is losing its ability to export inflation due to the diminishing status of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, which will lead to Americans facing the full inflation tax necessary to service the nation's rising debt [1][2][3]. Economic Mechanism - The ability to print money without immediate hyperinflation is linked to global demand for dollars, which absorbs excess supply. As the dollar's reserve currency status declines, the U.S. will lose its ability to tax the world by creating more money [2]. Government Spending Implications - The loss of reserve currency status will make it difficult to maintain current government spending levels, resulting in a more painful experience for Americans who will bear the full inflation tax [3]. Global Trade Dynamics - The narrative that the U.S. subsidizes global trade is challenged, with the argument that the world actually subsidizes the U.S. by holding dollars, allowing the country to live beyond its means. The dollar's reserve status is crucial for this dynamic [4]. Economic Collapse Warning - A warning is issued that the loss of the dollar's reserve status could lead to economic collapse, as noted by both Massie and Nassim Nicholas Taleb [5]. Structural Financial Shift - Data indicates a structural shift in the global financial order, with the dollar's share of global reserves decreasing from 72% in 1999 to approximately 57% today. Analysts predict a controlled decline of the dollar and a rise in digital assets, which may deflate the fiscal cushion that has allowed the U.S. to run large deficits [6]. Future Outlook - As 2026 approaches, the combination of high deficits and decreasing foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries suggests that the painful reckoning predicted by Massie may occur sooner than expected [7]. Investment Considerations - A list of dollar-tracking ETFs is provided for investors, highlighting their performance over six months, year-to-date, and one year [8].