Core Insights - Bitcoin is showing signs of U.S. bid-side strength with the Coinbase Premium Index turning positive after nearly a month below zero, as BTC hovers around $91,000 [1] - The Coinbase Premium Index indicates U.S. capital flows, with a positive print suggesting ETF-driven buying and renewed dollar liquidity, while a negative print signals domestic outflows [2] - Stablecoin balances on Binance reached a record $51.1 billion in November, indicating potential buying power in the market [3] Market Dynamics - The recent bounce in Bitcoin prices is characterized as a standard oversold recovery following two weeks of leveraged wipeouts, although BTC is still between critical levels [4] - The $90,000 level may act as resistance, with a need for a firm break above $95,000 to reclaim the upward trend [4] - A drop below $87,000 could lead to a decline towards $80,000, extending the capitulation phase observed in November [5] Sentiment and Performance - The sentiment index has risen to 25, indicating a move out of extreme fear but not yet signaling a complete shift in market psychology [5] - Only one in seven major tokens posted gains over the past day, reflecting the narrow nature of the current rebound despite the overall crypto market cap remaining near $3.1 trillion [5]

Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes maintains his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025, viewing the recent drop to $80,000 as a cycle bottom rather than the onset of a new bear market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price from a high of $125,000 to $80,000 is characterized as a liquidity-driven reset, influenced by significant dollar liquidity changes [2][3]. - Approximately $1 trillion has been drained from dollar money markets since July, attributed to the US Treasury's account refilling and the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening [3]. Group 2: ETF Market Misunderstandings - The inflows into Bitcoin ETFs were misinterpreted by retail investors, who believed it indicated strong institutional support, while in reality, the largest holders were basis traders exploiting spreads [4][5]. - Major firms like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, and others are involved in trading the IBIT ETF, primarily engaging in basis trading rather than long-term Bitcoin investment [5]. - As funding rates decreased, these institutional players unwound their trades, leading to negative ETF flows, which retail investors misinterpreted as institutions selling off Bitcoin [6].