Core Insights - Monad's recent price surge of over 51% from December 1 to 3 has lost momentum, forming a double top pattern that indicates potential exhaustion in buying pressure [1][3] - The decline in support and liquidity is pushing Monad (MON) towards lows not seen since its listing day [2] Price Action and Indicators - The formation of a double top occurred as Monad's price approached the $0.033 level twice, both times being rejected, which confirms the bearish pattern [3] - The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which tracks money entering or leaving the asset, has failed to rise above zero, indicating a lack of confidence from large spot buyers [3][4] Market Sentiment - The CMF has broken below its rising trendline, suggesting that demand from large wallets is weakening [4] - The Smart Money Index, which typically indicates early participation during corrections, is showing hesitation, reflecting a decline in rebound confidence among smart money traders [5] Derivative Market Dynamics - The derivatives market for Monad is experiencing significant pressure, with major trading groups reducing their perpetual futures exposure sharply over the past week [8] - The top 100 addresses have cut their positions by 98%, while smart-money perpetual traders have reduced exposure by 40.87%, and public-figure traders have decreased their positions by 80.52% [9] - Whales have exited 97.99% of their positions, indicating a strong bearish sentiment as remaining positions are mostly net short [10]

Market Sentiment - Bitcoin bear markets have never started when the majority of retail investors ("plebes") are predicting a double top and a bear market [1] - The document emphasizes the absence of historical correlation between widespread bearish sentiment and the actual start of Bitcoin bear markets [1]

Market Performance & Key Levels - S&P 500 is approximately 4% above its pre-tariff sell-off high from February [1] - Dow Jones Industrial Average and MAG 7 have returned to their previous highs but haven't exceeded them [2][4] - S&P 400 Midcap is lagging, sitting about 5% below its previous high [3] - S&P 500 equal weight has recouped its losses and is at former highs, identical to the Dow and MAG 7 [4] Midcap & Equal Weight Performance - Since its launch on June 19, 1991, the S&P Midcap has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 [5] - The S&P 500 equal weight has also outperformed the S&P 500 [5] Critical Juncture & Potential Outcomes - The current week is crucial for indices to either break out to new highs or potentially form a double top [2][6] - A failure to break out could indicate a normal dip, drawdown, sell-off, decline, or drop [6] - A breakout requires clearing the former high by approximately 35% to 4%, and sustaining above that level [8] Confirmation of Breakout - A confirmed breakout needs to clear the former high by a certain amount, typically 35% to 4% [8] - Sustaining above the former high is crucial to avoid a double top or bull trap scenario [8]