Summary of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (CTGDF) 4Q25 Preliminary Results Company Overview - **Company**: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp (601888.SS) - **Industry**: Duty-Free Retail Key Financial Results - **2025 Revenue**: Rmb53.7 billion, a decrease of 4.9% year-over-year (yoy) [1] - **2025 Net Profit**: Rmb3.59 billion, a decrease of 16% yoy [1] - **4Q25 Revenue**: Rmb13.8 billion, an increase of 3% yoy, below expectations [1] - **4Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb534 million, a rebound of 53% yoy; excluding goodwill impairment loss, net profit increased by 150.63% yoy [1] - **Gross Margin**: Increased by 4.12 percentage points yoy in 4Q25 [1] Performance Insights - The revenue drop in 2025 was attributed to a strong rebound in Hainan, which was partially offset by weaker-than-expected performance in airport duty-free and online business [1] - The operating leverage driven by growth in Hainan contributed positively to the earnings rebound [1] Growth Prospects - Positive outlook on Hainan duty-free growth prospects due to favorable policies, including: - Unlimited "pickup upon purchase" for Hainan residents - Optimization of product categories and inclusion of certain domestic products [1] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - **Current Price (as of 20 Mar 2026)**: Rmb72.20 - **Target Price**: Rmb106.00, implying a potential upside of 46.8% [2] - **Expected Total Return**: 48.7%, with an expected dividend yield of 1.9% [2] Risks - Key downside risks include: 1. Unfavorable duty-free policies, such as increased competition from foreign operators due to more duty-free licenses [7] 2. Slowdown in passenger flows and spending due to disruptive events or economic downturns [7] 3. Loss of pricing advantage as the government may loosen import tariffs and legitimize cross-border e-commerce [7] Conclusion - The preliminary results indicate a mixed performance for CTGDF in 2025, with a notable recovery in 4Q25. The company is positioned for potential growth in the Hainan duty-free market, supported by favorable policies. However, investors should remain cautious of the outlined risks that could impact future performance.