Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) decreased by -0.30% today, influenced by a significant rise in US job cuts, which surged +175% year-over-year in October, marking the largest increase in 22 years [1][2] - Year-to-date job cuts in the US have surpassed 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The ongoing US government shutdown is exerting pressure on the dollar, with expectations that prolonged shutdowns could lead to further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market sentiment indicates a 69% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will reduce the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming meeting on December 9-10 [3] Eurozone Economic Performance - The euro (EUR/USD) increased by +0.35% today, supported by dollar weakness and positive comments from ECB Vice President Guindos regarding Eurozone growth [4] - Eurozone retail sales unexpectedly fell -0.1% month-over-month in September, contrary to expectations of a +0.2% increase, while German industrial production rose +1.3% month-over-month, below the anticipated +3.0% [5] Central Bank Divergence - The divergence in central bank policies is favorable for the euro, as the European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed is expected to implement several more rate cuts by the end of 2026 [5] - ECB Vice President Guindos expressed optimism about the European economy's resilience and noted positive trends in inflation, particularly in service prices [6]