Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly in 2025, driven by supply disruptions and tariff fears, leading to a tight but fragile market heading into 2026 [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - Year-long disruptions at major mines such as Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and El Teniente have contributed to supply strains, with some mines not expected to recover output levels until 2027 or later [6][8]. - Analysts estimate that around 730,000 to 830,000 tonnes of copper were diverted into US warehouses in October 2025, tightening global supply and driving premiums higher [3][4]. - The term "economically trapped" describes copper that remains in the US due to current market conditions, indicating a lack of incentive to remove it from storage [4]. Demand Trends - Demand growth is strong on paper, particularly due to expectations surrounding electric vehicles and broader electrification, but actual near-term consumption has lagged, especially in China [9]. - High premiums have led some buyers to seek cheaper alternatives, although the market remains tight rather than broken [9]. Market Sentiment and Volatility - The copper market is experiencing volatility driven by macroeconomic factors, including trade policies and stimulus expectations, with potential new tariffs from the Trump administration adding uncertainty [10][20]. - Analysts warn that sudden policy shifts could lead to sharp price swings, affecting not only copper but the broader market [22]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that copper demand could triple by 2045 due to the energy transition, with a structural deficit potentially emerging as early as 2026 [12][16]. - Without significant investment in new projects and recycling, the deficit could reach 19 million tonnes by 2050 [12]. - The market is expected to remain tight in 2026, with key variables including trade flows into the US, recovery at major mines, and the global economic outlook [20][21].