Earnings Correlation Analysis
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Will Ralph Lauren's Q4 Earnings Boost Stock?
Forbes· 2025-05-21 11:20
Group 1 - Ralph Lauren is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on May 22, 2025, with analysts estimating earnings of $2.40 per share and revenue of $1.65 billion, reflecting a 45% year-over-year increase in earnings and a 5% rise in sales compared to last year's figures [1] - The company has raised its full-year constant currency revenue growth forecast to 6–7% and anticipates an operating margin improvement of 120–160 basis points [2] - Ralph Lauren's current market capitalization stands at $17 billion, with trailing 12-month revenue of $6.9 billion, operating income of $926 million, and net income of $705 million [2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that RL stock has risen 63% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day increase of 4.4% and a maximum observed rise of 17% [1][6] - Over the past five years, there have been 19 earnings data points for Ralph Lauren, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 63% of the time [6] - The correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings can provide a less risky trading approach, particularly if a strong correlation exists between 1D and 5D returns [4][5]