Relative Performance - Small cap stocks are more sensitive to economic cycles and interest rate changes than large cap stocks [1] - Historically, small cap stocks have outperformed large caps by 2% to 3% annually, but have recently lagged due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty [1] Impact of Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve's high rate environment since 2022 has weighed heavily on small caps, which typically rely on borrowing to fuel growth [2] - Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs and compress valuations, hitting small cap profitability hard [2] - Rate cuts are bullish for small caps as these companies pay reduced interest expenses on debt [2] Economic Impact of Rate Cuts - Rate cuts tend to stimulate the domestic economy, which benefits small cap companies that rely on domestic demand [3] - Increased consumer spending and business investment, resulting from rate cuts, can disproportionately benefit small cap companies [3]

Economic Principles - Productivity growth, driven by innovation and hard work, is the primary driver of rising living standards over time [1] - Credit's impact is more significant in the short term due to its ability to create economic swings, allowing consumption to exceed production temporarily [2] - Borrowing is essentially pulling spending forward, creating a future obligation to spend less than one earns to repay the debt, thus forming a cycle [5][6] Credit and Debt Dynamics - Credit differs from money; money settles transactions immediately, while credit creates an asset and a liability, representing a promise to pay in the future [7] - The total amount of credit in the United States is approximately $50 trillion, significantly exceeding the total amount of money, which is about $3 trillion [8] - Credit is beneficial when it finances productive investments that generate income to repay the debt, but detrimental when it funds overconsumption that cannot be sustained [10] Economic Cycles - Economic swings are primarily influenced by the availability of credit, not by fluctuations in innovation or hard work [4] - Borrowing sets in motion a predictable series of events, making understanding credit crucial for anticipating future economic outcomes [6] - An economy with credit experiences increased spending and faster income growth than productivity in the short run, but this is unsustainable in the long run [9] Example of Credit Amplification - An individual earning $100,000 annually can borrow $10,000, enabling them to spend $110,000, which in turn becomes another person's income [11][12]

Economic Cycles - Economic cycles typically last about six years from one recession to the next [2] - Central banks inject money and credit into weak economies, causing market increases and increased spending, eventually leading to inflation [2] - Inflation prompts tightening of monetary policy, causing economic recession [3] - Since 1945, there have been 12 and a half economic cycles [3] Debt and Income - Debts are rising relative to incomes in most countries [3] - High debt relative to income and expensive debt service crowd out other spending [4] - Investors may sell debt if it doesn't provide good returns, leading to a change in the big debt cycle [4] Big Cycle and Political Disruption - The big debt cycle typically corresponds with the big domestic political and social cycle [4] - Disruption to wealth and well-being leads to political disruption [4] - Increased fighting over wealth and power creates new conflicts and seismic shifts [5] - These periods of great change are periods of great risk for markets and society [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights three Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks that present strong buying opportunities amid a significant market sell-off, emphasizing the historical trend of such downturns being favorable for long-term investors. Group 1: Market Context - The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a decline of 4,260 points, equating to a 10.1% drop from April 3 to April 7, indicating a shift into "crash" territory [2] - Historically, significant declines in the Dow have signaled buying opportunities for long-term investors, as resilient businesses tend to recover and grow in value over time [3] Group 2: Visa - Visa is highlighted as a strong investment due to its ability to thrive during economic cycles, benefiting from periods of expansion following downturns [6][7] - In 2023, Visa accounted for $6.445 trillion in credit card network purchase volume in the U.S., significantly outpacing other payment facilitators [8] - Visa has opportunities for growth in underbanked emerging markets, enhancing its long-term growth potential [9] - The stock has retraced as much as 17.6% from its all-time high, presenting an attractive entry point for investors [10] Group 3: Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson is positioned as a strong buy due to consistent demand for healthcare products, regardless of economic conditions [12] - The company's focus on pharmaceuticals has led to solid operating results, with brand-name drugs offering higher margins and growth potential [13] - The aging population is expected to drive demand for J&J's medical technologies, improving pricing power and margins [14] - J&J holds a AAA credit rating, indicating strong financial stability and ability to manage debt obligations [15] - The company has had only 10 CEOs in 139 years, ensuring continuity in leadership and growth initiatives [16] Group 4: Walt Disney - Walt Disney is recognized for its strong brand and storytelling capabilities, which provide a competitive edge and pricing power [18][19] - The company's direct-to-consumer segment, particularly Disney+, has achieved profitability rapidly, aided by brand strength and pricing strategies [20] - Disney benefits from the nonlinearity of economic cycles, with revenue typically increasing during economic expansions [21] - The stock is currently valued at a sub-14 forward price-to-earnings ratio, representing a 47% discount to its average over the past five years [22]