Core Viewpoint - President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, expressing a desire for an ambitious economic growth rate of 15%, which is rarely achieved outside of wartime [1][8]. Economic Growth Metrics - The president did not clarify the specific metric or timeframe for the 15% growth target, but typically, economic growth is measured as the inflation-adjusted annual rate of GDP growth [2]. - Historically, real GDP growth averages between 2%-3% annually, with double-digit growth occurring only in extreme situations, such as post-catastrophe recoveries [3]. Historical Context - The last instance of GDP growth reaching Trump's predicted level was during the reopening of businesses after COVID-19 restrictions, while the last year with growth exceeding 15% was 1943, during World War II [4]. Fed's Role and Challenges - As Fed chair, Warsh will have the ability to influence the economy through the fed funds rate, which impacts borrowing costs; however, his influence is limited as he is one of 12 voting members [7]. - The Fed can stimulate economic growth by lowering interest rates, but it must also manage its mandate to control inflation, which remains above the Fed's 2% target [6][8].

Tyler Sky high maybe understates it. 15%, 15% growth. Yeah.Jon, At this point, it's probably an understatement to say President Trump was trying to shed some light here on his hopes for an anticipated Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. It is unclear if the president was referencing year over year growth or some other metric, but underscores what could be intense pressure for the next Fed chair if and when he is confirmed. Now, perhaps behind this very rosy target is the fact that we are heading into the midterm electi ...

·德国商业银行：泰国央行或按兵不动，通胀持续低迷为年中降息铺路 ·道明证券：英镑涨势缺乏基本面支撑，美元反弹与政治风险或终结其强势行情 ·凯投宏观：印度央行的货币宽松周期可能已经结束 【机构分析】 ·德国商业银行分析指出，泰国央行预计将在本月货币政策会议上维持利率不变，以评估大选后对经济 与市场的影响。泰国消费者物价指数已连续10个月下滑，且2026年全年预计将低于央行1%-3%的目标区 间，为年内降息打开空间。当前通胀持续低迷叠加政治不确定性，为泰国央行在今年晚些时候转向宽松 货币政策创造了条件。 ·摩根大通在印尼2025年Q4 GDP超预期后，将2026年经济增长预测从4.9%上调至5.2%，但警告年初增长 动能或因财政退坡与汽车激励政策退潮而放缓。若印尼政府严格执行3%财政赤字上限，2026年财政支 持力度可能减弱，进一步拖累年初经济表现。尽管印尼经济年末表现强劲，摩根大通仍预计印尼央行将 在2026年第二季度实施两次降息（每次25个基点），前提是卢比汇率保持基本稳定。 ·Kenanga经济学家指出，受益于强劲的国内经济数据及对2025年四季度GDP终值的乐观预期，在美元获 得支撑、美联储推迟降息的背景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The interim management statement for Hargreave Hale AIM VCT PLC highlights contrasting economic conditions in the US and UK, with the US showing strong growth while the UK faces challenges including weak economic growth and rising unemployment [3][5]. Economic Overview - The US economy reported a robust growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025, despite political pressures [3]. - The UK is projected to have a growth rate of 1.5% for 2025 and 1.4% for 2026, with an unemployment rate rising to 5.1% [5]. - Consumer sentiment in the UK has improved post-Autumn Budget, although business confidence remains fragile [4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - UK inflation, as measured by CPI, increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of December 2025, down from 3.8% in September 2025 [6]. - The Bank of England reduced interest rates to 3.75% during the quarter, with expectations for further cuts in 2026 [6]. Investment Performance - The unaudited NAV per share decreased by 1.25 pence to 35.21 pence, resulting in a total return of -3.43% for shareholders [9]. - The AIM index returned -0.97% in the three months to December 31, 2025, reflecting a challenging market environment [8]. Qualifying Investments - Hardide saw a significant increase of 157.1% in value, returning to profitability and reporting a 40% year-on-year revenue increase [10]. - Skillcast and Tortilla Mexican Grill also reported positive performance, with increases of 11.7% and 34.3% respectively [11]. - Negative contributors included Cohort, which declined by 36.7% despite solid revenue growth, and Diaceutics, which fell by 23.3% without specific news [12][13]. Portfolio Structure - The company maintained a strong investment position, ending the period with 84.11% invested according to HMRC VCT investment tests [16]. - The weighting to qualifying investments increased from 54.0% to 54.9% by market value [16]. Share Buybacks and Market Activity - The company repurchased 2.6 million shares at an average price of 34.14 pence, with the share price trading at a discount of 4.30% to the last published NAV [21]. - Post-period, the NAV per share increased to 36.33 pence, reflecting a 3.18% rise, while AIM increased by 6.54% [22].

Economic Growth and Tariffs - The U.S. economy experienced a significant growth rate of 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025, marking the fastest pace in two years, driven by consumer spending, exports, government spending, and investment [2] - A narrower trade deficit contributed 1.62 percentage points to overall GDP growth, with imports declining [1][2] - President Trump attributes this economic turnaround to his tariff policies, claiming they have transformed the U.S. from a "DEAD" country to the "HOTTEST" economy in the world [3][5] Stock Market Performance - The stock market has seen a strong bull run, with the S&P 500 up approximately 24% since Trump's tariff announcement in April 2025, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearing 49,449 [6][9] - Trump predicts the Dow will soon break 50,000, reflecting his bullish outlook on the stock market's continued growth [6][10] Retirement Accounts and Wealth Creation - The average 401(k) balance rose by 9% year-over-year to an all-time high of $144,400 in Q3 2025, benefiting from the stock market surge [9] - The U.S. stock market is emphasized as a powerful engine of wealth creation, with significant gains flowing into retirement accounts [9] Investment Opportunities - Platforms like Moby provide market research to simplify stock analysis, with their recommendations outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 12% on average over the past four years [11] - Fundrise has disrupted the venture capital space by allowing retail investors to invest in private tech companies with a minimum investment of $10, aiming to build a portfolio of valuable firms [13][14] Real Estate Investment - Real estate is highlighted as a cornerstone of wealth-building, with properties providing consistent rental income and a hedge against inflation [16] - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived enable investors to buy shares in rental homes with as little as $100, making real estate investment more accessible [17][18] - Institutional-quality real estate investments are available through platforms like Lightstone DIRECT, which requires a minimum investment of $100,000 and has a strong historical performance [20][21][22]

Last Friday, financial FRNs traded 1bp wider. In HK, the NWDEVL/VDNWDL complex surged another 0.5-3.0pts, following the market rumors that Blackstone might become NWD's single largest shareholder, but no agreement has been reached yet. FAEACO 12.814 Perp rose 1.5pts. SHUION 26-29 edged 0.2-0.6pt higher. SUNHKC 26 was 0.1pt lower, while SUNHKC 29 was 0.3pt higher. TW lifers were 2-4bps wider amid street selling on NSINTW/SHIKON. Long-end MEITUA/KUAISH also widened 2- 3bps. EHICAR 26 was down by 0.6pt. WESCHI ...

Japan has the oldest population in the world, and with that comes a growing challenge: protecting household wealth as cognitive decline becomes more common. According to Bloomberg, half of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) is in the hands of older adults experiencing dementia. With trillions of dollars at risk of mismanagement, Japan’s already sluggish economy could be heading for even harder times (1). Must Read This troubling trend serves as a warning for other aging countries, including the ...

We did discuss this choice for the Fed chair Kevin Wars. Now, let's bring in our senior economics reporter Steve Leeman along with former Fed vice chairman Roger Ferguson for more. Mr.. Ferguson, it's great to see you, Steve. Always good to have you. Roger, you first.What is your reaction to the worst pick. >> Uh, first I would say not surprised. Many people expected that to be the the outcome.Secondly, I think now in some sense for him, the hard work begins. Um he's got to get through a Senate hearing whic ...

Market Performance - The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed up by 0.64%, with the U.K.'s FTSE 100 climbing 0.51%, Germany's DAX gaining 0.68%, and France's CAC 40 also increasing by 0.68% [2] - Positive performances were noted in Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and Spain, while Greece, Iceland, Poland, Russia, and Sweden ended weak [2] Company Highlights - Lloyds Banking Group gained 3.3% after launching a share buyback program to repurchase up to £1.75 billion of its ordinary shares [3] - Other banks such as Natwest Group, Barclays, Standard Chartered, and HSBC Holdings saw gains between 1.2% and 2% [3] - In the German market, SAP increased by about 4.2%, and Adidas rose 3.7% after reporting record revenues and announcing a €1 billion ($1.2 billion) stock buyback [5] - In the French market, companies like Edenred, Sanofi, and LVMH closed up by 1%-3% [6] Sector Performance - Gains in financials and consumer sectors in the UK market offset losses in the mining sector [2] - The German market saw a mix of performances, with several companies gaining while others like Volkswagen and Continental closed weak [5] Economic Indicators - In Germany, import prices declined by 2.3% in December year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% [8] - The German economy expanded by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the last three months of 2025, marking the strongest performance in three quarters [10] - France's GDP growth was reported at 0.2% for the fourth quarter, with overall economic growth softening to 0.9% in 2025 from 1.1% in 2024 [12][13]

Population Growth and Economic Implications - The latest U.S. Census Bureau estimates indicate very low population growth from June 30, 2024, to July 1, 2025, suggesting potential future weaknesses in economic growth [2] - Natural population increase has been low, with fluctuations primarily driven by net migration, which is not perfectly measured [4] - Population growth in the coming years is expected to be lower than the recent gains, with net migration showing significant fluctuations during different presidential administrations [7] Labor Market and Productivity - Most immigrants are of working age but tend to be lower-skilled and earn lower wages, which means a drop in immigration has a less significant impact compared to a decline in native-born workers [5] - Low-skilled workers complement high-skilled workers, affecting overall productivity and earnings in various sectors [6] - Labor productivity growth is beginning to reflect advancements in artificial intelligence, with historical productivity gains showing variability [8] Economic Growth Forecast - With approximately zero population growth and an expected productivity growth of around two percent, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to increase by slightly more than two percent in the near term [9] - Business planning should be slightly less optimistic than in previous years, particularly for sectors serving low-wage consumers, which will experience slower growth [10] - The economy can remain healthy with low immigration, but its size and characteristics will differ from scenarios with higher immigration levels [11]