量化日报 | 黄金信号逐步企稳 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 付耕阳 fugy@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《利率 | 二季度如何展望？不妨看看 2021 年》 2026-03-24 2. 《量化日报 | 全 A、微盘择时信号边际 增强》 2026-03-24 3. 《如果 3 月 MLF 也缩量？ 》 2026-03-24 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2026.03.25 核心观点 ❖ 看多：2 年国债； ❖ 调整：30 年国债、3 年 AAA 中短票、10 年国债、中证红利全收益指 数、恒生科技指数、科创 50 指数、国证 2000 指数、COMEX 黄金； ❖ 震荡：万得全 A 指数、万得微盘指数、IPE 布油； ❖ 30 年国债原始信号 70.14%，MA5 为 71.98%，模型观点为【调整】；信号 持续【9】个交易日；3 年 AAA 中短票原始信号 70.96%，MA5 为 66.60%， 模型观点由【震荡】转为【调整 ...

能源冲击下的中国优势 证券研究报告 宏观专题报告 / 2026.03.23 核心观点 分析师 张伟 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060002 zhangwei04@ctsec.com 联系人 连桐杉 liants@ctsec.com 相关报告 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 油价冲击下的全球供给重塑：2024 年全球能源消费高度依赖化石能源，这 种结构性失衡意味着全球经济对能源价格波动极度敏感。在 2026 年地缘政 治风险频发的背景下，原油冲击已不再仅仅是简单的"成本抬升"，而是演变 为一场对全球制造业供应链韧性的底线测试。能源结构决定中国具备更强的 供给韧性，中国构建工业成本的"安全垫"相较于日、韩、德等高度依赖油气 进口的传统制造强国更具优势。油价冲击本质从成本冲击转向供给冲击：中 国一次能源近似自给率约 83.2%，明显高于主要制造型经济体。出口呈现"短 空长多"，但净出口具有一定的不确定性：中国形成了"煤炭托底、油气补充、 非化石抬升"的组合模式。非油气能源占比已超过七成，国内煤炭资源叠加核 能、风光水电，构成了工业生产的稳固底盘。中国原油采购来源结构分散，且 具备深厚的煤化工技术储备，在极端 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [36]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strengthening market stability mechanisms and suggests focusing on left-side opportunities within the sector. It highlights that external risk events may fluctuate, but the market's resilience remains strong, with a trend of incremental capital inflow expected to continue [5]. - The introduction of the Financial Law draft is seen as a significant step towards enhancing regulatory frameworks and promoting high-quality development in the financial sector. This law aims to strengthen supervision, prevent risks, and support long-term growth [16][17]. - The insurance sector is advised to be actively monitored, as it continues to increase its equity investment ratio despite market downturns. The report notes that the solvency ratio of life insurance companies remains robust, providing a buffer against potential market pressures [13][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - As of March 21, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.90%. The CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.19%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.26% [10]. 2. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary (a) Insurance - The report indicates that the insurance sector is guided by the two sessions to pursue high-quality development. The solvency ratio of life insurance companies is at 115%, significantly above the regulatory threshold of 50%, allowing for continued investment in equities [13]. - The proportion of insurance funds allocated to stocks and funds has increased to 14.8%, up by 2.1 percentage points from the previous year. The report suggests that the current valuation of the insurance sector presents a good cost-performance ratio [13]. (b) Securities - The Financial Law draft aims to enhance financial regulation and promote high-quality development. It establishes a comprehensive legal framework for financial activities, emphasizing risk prevention and regulatory clarity [16][17]. - The report notes that the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has reported a significant increase in the virtual asset market, with a daily trading volume increase of 89.5% year-on-year, indicating a growing market and regulatory framework [21][23]. 3. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report includes detailed valuations for key companies in the sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," including China Ping An, China Life, and Huatai Securities, among others. The expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for these companies indicate strong growth potential [6].

分析师 韩乾 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060004 hanqian@ctsec.com 市场调整，指增组合超额回撤 分析师 缪铃凯 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060003 miaolk@ctsec.com 分析师 张淼 SAC 证书编号：S0160525080008 zhangmiao@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《指增组合年内超额收益悉数转正》 2026-03-14 2. 《OpenClaw：打造智能投研 Agent 团 队》 2026-03-14 3. 《市场震荡调整，指增组合全面上涨》 2026-03-07 证券研究报告 量化选股策略周报/ 2026.03.21 核心观点 ❖ 我们基于深度学习框架构建 alpha 和风险模型，打造 AI 体系下的低 频指数增强策略： ❖ 风险提示：因子失效风险，模型失效风险，市场风格变动风险。 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 本周市场指数表现：截至 2026-03-20，本周上证指数下跌 3.38%，深证 成指下跌 2.90%，沪深 300 下跌 2.19%，市场调整创业板抗跌效应显著。 ❖ 本周指数增强基金表现：截至 2026-03-20，本 ...

滞胀为时尚早，关注通胀预期 ——2026 年美联储 3 月议息会议点评 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2026.03.19 核心观点 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 陆星辰 luxc@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《量化日报 | 短端持续看多》 2026- 03-18 2. 《通胀来了，货币政策会变吗？》 2026-03-17 3. 《利率 | 经济数据超预期，债市怎么 看？》 2026-03-17 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 ❖ FOMC 决议如期落地，维持利率不变且分歧减少。美联储如期宣布维持联邦 基金利率不变。决议声明新增了对失业率基本保持稳定的描述，定调偏向中 性；风险评估中提及中东局势对美国经济的影响尚不明朗，意味着接下来可 能需要更长时间评估中东局势的冲击。此次决议内部分歧有所减少，仅有一 名票委投出反对票：米兰倾向于在本次会议上降息 25 个基点。总体而言，美 联储决议表述符合预期，对中东局势的影响叙述保持中性。 ❖ 由于 ...

分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020003 suixp@ctsec.com 联系人 付耕阳 fugy@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《通胀来了，货币政策会变吗？》 2026-03-17 2. 《利率 | 经济数据超预期，债市怎么 看？》 2026-03-17 3. 《量化日报 | 超 长 仍 处调 整 区间 》 2026-03-17 证券研究报告 固收定期报告 / 2026.03.18 核心观点 ❖ 震荡：中证红利全收益指数、恒生科技指数、IPE 布油； ❖ 30 年国债原始信号 76.88%，MA5 为 67.56%，模型观点为【调整】；信号 持续【4】个交易日；3 年 AAA 中短票原始信号 17.77%，MA5 为 26.20%， 模型观点为【看多】；信号持续【2】个交易日；10 年国债原始信号 74.05%， MA5 为 60.92%，模型观点由【震荡】转为【调整】；信号持续【1】个交易 日；2 年国债原始信号 7.40%，MA5 为 30.40%，模型观点为【看多】；信 号持续【 ...

Group 1 - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau issued regulatory penalties to two securities companies for compliance issues [1][3] - Zheshang Securities faced four main issues in its custody business, including lack of experienced personnel and inadequate compliance management [3][4] - Zheshang Securities has approximately 1.623 billion public fund custody shares involving five public funds as of 2024 [3] Group 2 - The company is required to identify and rectify issues, enhance legal and regulatory training, and strengthen internal controls and compliance management [4] - Two former employees of Caitong Securities were penalized for not adhering to professional standards during their tenure [6][7] - Caitong Securities had previously received a warning from the China Securities Regulatory Commission due to inadequate internal control mechanisms and insufficient due diligence [7]

Group 1 - Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau issued regulatory penalties to two securities firms this week, with Zheshang Securities facing administrative measures for compliance issues in its custody department and asset management subsidiaries [1][2] - Zheshang Securities was found to have four main issues in its custody business, including lack of experienced personnel, non-independent office space, inadequate supervision standards, and poor management of personnel conduct [2] - The firm has been authorized to conduct private fund custody since January 2015 and has approximately 1.623 billion public fund custody shares involving five public funds as of now [2] Group 2 - The regulatory measures require Zheshang Securities to identify and rectify issues, enhance legal and regulatory training, strengthen internal controls, and submit a written report to the Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau within three months [3] - Two former employees of Caitong Securities, Peng and Yang, faced regulatory discussions for not adhering to professional standards during their tenure, violating the regulations for corporate bond issuance and trading [4] - Caitong Securities had previously received a warning from the China Securities Regulatory Commission due to inadequate internal control mechanisms and insufficient due diligence in bond underwriting [4]

Group 1 - The Zhejiang Securities Regulatory Bureau announced corrective measures against Zhejiang Securities Co., Ltd. due to issues such as lack of experienced personnel in core business positions and inadequate compliance management in asset management subsidiaries [1] - Specific problems identified include non-independent office space for custody business and incomplete supervision standards and processes for fund investments [1] - Regulatory talks were conducted with individuals Peng Yu and Yang Yu for not strictly adhering to professional norms during their tenure at Caitong Securities Co., Ltd., violating the Company Bond Issuance and Trading Management Measures [1][6][8] Group 2 - The corrective measures taken against Zhejiang Securities will be recorded in the securities and futures market integrity archives [1] - The regulatory talks for Peng Yu and Yang Yu will also be documented in the integrity archives of the securities and futures market [1][6]

证券代码：601108 证券简称：财通证券 公告编号：2026-008 一、同意公司向专业投资者公开发行面值总额不超过80亿元次级债券的注 册申请。 二、本次发行次级债券应严格按照报送上海证券交易所的募集说明书进行。 三、本批复自同意注册之日起24个月内有效，公司在注册有效期内可以分期 发行次级债券。 四、自同意注册之日起至本次次级债券发行结束前，公司如发生重大事项， 应及时报告并按有关规定处理。 公司将严格按照有关法律法规和上述批复文件的要求及公司股东会的授权 办理本次发行次级债券相关事宜。 财通证券股份有限公司 关于向专业投资者公开发行次级债券 获得中国证监会注册批复的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 财通证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于近日收到中国证券监督管理委 员会（以下简称"中国证监会"）《关于同意财通证券股份有限公司向专业投资者 公开发行次级债券注册的批复》（证监许可〔2026〕378号）（以下简称"批复"）。 批复内容如下： 特此公告。 财通证券股份有限公司董事会 2026年3月12日 ...