Core Insights - BYD's sales growth slowed to 7.7% in 2025, marking the slowest growth rate in five years due to increased domestic competition in China's saturated car market [1] - Despite the slowdown, BYD is expected to surpass Tesla in annual battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales for the first time, selling 2.3 million BEVs in 2025, a 27.9% increase from the previous year [2] Sales Performance - BYD sold 4.6 million vehicles in 2025, up from 4.3 million in 2024, but December sales dropped by 18.3% year-on-year to approximately 420,000 cars [1] - Tesla's sales faced challenges, with estimates predicting 1.6 million BEVs sold in 2025, and projected sales of 1.8 million in 2026, 2 million in 2027, and 3 million in 2029 [3][4] Market Dynamics - The Chinese EV market is highly competitive, with manufacturers reducing prices to gain market share, leading to an oversupply of vehicles [6] - UBS forecasts that the growth rate of EV sales in China will halve in 2026 due to these competitive pressures [6] International Expansion - Domestic competition is prompting Chinese car manufacturers, including BYD, to explore overseas markets, making China the world's largest car exporter [7] - BYD has become the leading EV brand in Southeast Asia, surpassing Toyota in Singapore as the top-selling car brand of 2025 [7] - The company is also expanding into the European market with a new factory in Hungary set to produce 150,000 all-electric sedans annually starting in 2026, alongside plans for facilities in Thailand, Indonesia, and Brazil [8]

Core Viewpoint - BYD Co. has met its full-year sales target and is likely to surpass Tesla to become the world's largest electric vehicle maker by 2025, despite facing a challenging outlook for the Chinese auto market in the upcoming year [1] Sales Performance - BYD delivered a total of 4.6 million vehicles in 2025, marking a 7.7% increase from 2024, aligning with the company's revised full-year goal set in September [2] - The company sold approximately 2.26 million fully electric vehicles, nearly matching its plug-in hybrid sales [2] Competitive Landscape - Tesla is expected to report around 440,900 vehicle deliveries in Q4, reflecting an 11% decline year-over-year, leading to an estimated total of 1.66 million cars sold for the year, marking its second consecutive annual drop [3] - BYD faces increasing competition from Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp., which are gaining consumer interest through new models and innovations [5] Market Challenges - The Chinese EV market is expected to experience pressure as the government reduces incentives for EV purchases, and an influx of new models intensifies domestic competition [4] - Trade barriers are also posing challenges for BYD's ambitions to expand internationally [4] Technological Advancements - BYD's CEO Wang Chuanfu indicated that the company's previous technological advantages have diminished, impacting domestic sales, but expressed confidence in upcoming technological breakthroughs due to a strong engineering team [6] International Sales Growth - A positive development for BYD has been its overseas sales, which reached 1.05 million in 2025, surpassing the high-end estimate of 1 million, helping to mitigate the decline in its core market [7] - However, passenger EV and hybrid sales in China fell for the eighth consecutive month, with a 37.7% drop in December [7] - Morgan Stanley anticipates a more significant domestic recovery for BYD following the launch of several major facelifts in early 2026 [7]

Core Insights - Tesla's sales have significantly declined in Europe's largest car markets, with a 55% drop in Germany and nearly 60% in Britain, indicating a fundamental shift in the electric vehicle landscape [1][2][6] - BYD, a low-cost Chinese competitor, has seen substantial growth, quadrupling its registrations in Britain and increasing its first-half registrations in Germany to 4,544 units, compared to around 900 the previous year [7][9] Sales Performance - In Germany, Tesla registered only 1,110 new vehicles in July, down from previous figures, leading to a drop in market share from 8.3% to 3.6% [1][6] - In Britain, Tesla's registrations fell to 987 in July, marking a significant decline in its second-largest market [2] Competitive Landscape - BYD's sales surged, with over 1.1 million plug-in vehicles sold globally in Q2 2025, surpassing Tesla's 384,000 battery-only electric vehicles during the same period [9] - Tesla remains the most popular EV maker in the United States, holding a 46% market share in Q2 2025, despite a 15% sales drop in Q1 [10][12] Market Trends - Overall EV sales in Germany increased by 58% and by nearly 40% in Britain over the past seven months, highlighting a growing market despite Tesla's struggles [6] - Legacy automakers in the US, such as General Motors and Honda, have reported significant year-over-year gains in EV volume, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [12]