Core Insights - Rivian's shares reached $19 for the first time since January 11, 2024, indicating a positive trend as the company heads into 2025, despite a flat performance over the last three years and an 82% crash in 2022 [1][3] Group 1: Company Performance - Rivian's sales for its primary R1 models fell 36% year over year in Q1 2025, and despite discounts in Q2, sales continued to decline by 31% year over year [3][4] - A strong bounceback in Q3 2025 saw a 32% increase in sales, largely driven by consumers taking advantage of the federal EV tax credit before its expiration [3] Group 2: Future Prospects - The upcoming R2 SUV, expected to launch in 2026 with a starting price of $45,000, is seen as a key growth driver for Rivian, potentially allowing the company to enter the "affordable" car market [4][5] - Baird analyst Ben Kallo upgraded Rivian's rating from neutral to buy for 2026, citing the R2 launch as a significant factor for boosting brand demand and share price [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Rivian's R2 will face competition from Toyota's 2026 bZ starting at $34,900, Tesla's 2026 Model Y at $39,990, and Honda's 2026 Prologue at $47,400 [5] - The success of R2 sales compared to these competitors will be crucial for Rivian's long-term recovery and investment appeal [5]