Core Thesis - MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (MKTX) presents a bullish investment opportunity driven by AI integration, new trading protocols, and electronic trading penetration despite facing near-term challenges [1][6]. Financial Performance - MKTX reported mixed results for 4Q25, with total revenue of $209 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase but slightly below consensus estimates; EPS was $1.69, exceeding estimates by 3% due to favorable tax and share count effects [2]. - Adjusted operating margins declined to 36.8% due to increased expenses related to technology, staffing, and AI investments [3]. Trading Activity - Transaction volumes showed uneven performance, with credit average daily volume (ADV) down 8% year-over-year and rates ADV down 17% year-over-year; however, there were gains in fee-per-million for rates and incremental growth in credit driven by shifts towards portfolio and block trading [3]. - Automated block trading among top clients increased by 125%, and U.S. high-yield portfolio trading volumes rose by 126% in January 2026, indicating traction for newer trading protocols [4]. Strategic Outlook - Management aims for 8-9% revenue growth over the next three years, targeting approximately 100 basis points of margin expansion through increased electronic penetration, AI-driven efficiency, and adoption of new protocols in U.S. credit and emerging markets [5]. - The market opportunity is bolstered by opaque emerging markets, where MKTX's AI applications could provide a significant competitive advantage [5]. Investment Considerations - Despite modest near-term revenue growth and execution risks, the combination of protocol innovation, AI integration, and expanding electronic trading positions MKTX for meaningful medium-term upside [6]. - The current valuation may be seen as an attractive entry point for investors looking for structural growth, resilient client demand, and multiple catalysts for margin and revenue expansion over the next three years [6].