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Retirees Are Eyeing EMLC's 5.75% Yield While Wall St Bets Against It
247Wallst· 2026-03-09 15:10
Core Viewpoint - Retirees are increasingly interested in the VanEck J.P. Morgan EM Local Currency Bond ETF (EMLC) due to its 5.75% yield, which is significantly higher than the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.13%. However, EMLC has experienced a 48% decline since its inception, raising concerns about its long-term viability and the impact of currency fluctuations on returns [1]. Group 1: Yield and Performance - EMLC offers a 5.75% yield compared to the 10-year Treasury yield of 4.13%, attracting retirees seeking income [1]. - The fund has delivered a total return of 13.2% over the past year, but its 10-year price return is only 28.22%, indicating limited price appreciation over the long term [1]. - EMLC has made 161 consecutive monthly payments since its inception in July 2010, with recent monthly distributions ranging from $0.1149 to $0.1390 per share [1]. Group 2: Currency Risk - EMLC's returns are heavily dependent on the performance of emerging market currencies against the U.S. dollar, making it a bet on currency stability [1]. - A strengthening U.S. dollar can erode the value of local currency interest payments, negatively impacting the effective yield for investors [1]. - The fund has seen a surge in short interest, reaching 5.8% of shares sold short in January 2026, reflecting institutional skepticism amid a risk-off market environment [1]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - The monthly income from EMLC is subject to fluctuations based on currency value, which can affect total returns for investors with dollar-denominated spending needs [1]. - The current market sentiment, indicated by a VIX of 23.75, suggests a preference for dollar-denominated assets, further complicating the outlook for EMLC [1].