Group 1 - The outlook for employment and inflation has not changed significantly since the Fed's September meeting, but downside risks to employment have increased [1][4] - The Federal Open Market Committee has a median estimate of two more rate cuts for this year, but there is no risk-free path in balancing inflation reduction and job market health [2] - Projections from the Fed represent a range of potential outcomes that evolve with new information [3] Group 2 - Despite a government shutdown delaying important data releases, available evidence indicates low levels of layoffs and hiring, with perceptions of job availability declining [5] - The Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, will be released on October 24, which is crucial for the Fed's upcoming policy meeting [6] - The Fed may soon halt its balance sheet runoff when bank reserves are above the deemed "ample" level [7]