Core Insights - U.S. gasoline prices are projected to decline by 6% in 2026, providing relief to consumers but posing challenges for oil companies [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates a downward trend in global oil prices this year due to a supply-driven market surplus, despite geopolitical risks maintaining price volatility [2] Price Decline Factors - The expected decline in gasoline prices is primarily driven by falling crude oil prices, with Brent crude projected to average around $56 per barrel in 2026 due to a supply wave from long-cycle projects [5] - Decreasing U.S. refinery capacity, particularly on the West Coast, may offset some effects of lower crude oil prices, potentially benefiting remaining refiners while dampening domestic demand due to increasing fuel economy and robust EV sales [6] Impact on Energy Companies - Integrated oil majors like Exxon Mobil and Chevron may experience margin pressure due to lower realized oil prices, while refining companies such as Marathon Petroleum and Valero Energy could benefit from resilient or expanding crack spreads [7] Investment Strategy - The current geopolitical tensions and trade disputes add complexity to the energy investment landscape, making broad Energy ETFs more attractive than individual stocks as they provide a buffer against localized disruptions [8][9] - Investors in Energy ETFs are likely to remain protected against short-term market upheavals due to the diversified nature of many constituent companies, which have significant investments in low-carbon energy resources [10] Energy ETFs Spotlight - **State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)**: AUM of $29.35 billion, exposure to 22 companies, top holdings include XOM (23.99%) and CVX (18.00%), gained 7.2% over the past year [12][13] - **Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE)**: Net assets of $7 billion, exposure to 107 companies, top holdings include XOM (22.87%) and CVX (15.02%), rallied 6.8% over the past year [14][15] - **iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC)**: Net assets of $2 billion, exposure to 50 companies, top holdings include XOM (18.86%) and CVX (10.84%), soared 13.3% over the past year [16] - **VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK)**: Net assets of $69.3 million, exposure to 30 refining companies, top holdings include PSX (7.57%) and VLO (6.66%), surged 40.7% over the past year [17]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a 13% increase in Alaska's crude oil production by 2026, marking the highest output since 2018 and the most significant annual growth rate since the 1980s [1][7]. Production Drivers - The increase in oil production is attributed to large-scale projects transitioning from planning to production, notably ConocoPhillips' Nuna project and Santos' Pikka Phase 1 project [3][4]. - ConocoPhillips' Nuna project is expected to reach a peak capacity of 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) [3]. - The Pikka Phase 1 project is anticipated to start in early 2026 and peak at 80,000 bpd, contributing nearly 20% of Alaska's total production in 2025 [4]. Impact on Major Oil Companies - Major oil companies like ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil will benefit from increased revenues and cash flows due to the production surge [2][6]. - ConocoPhillips, as the dominant producer in Alaska, is well-positioned to gain from its multiple projects, including Nuna and the future Willow development [6][7]. Energy ETFs and Investment Opportunities - The projected increase in oil production serves as a catalyst for the U.S. energy sector, potentially boosting earnings and share prices of key companies [7]. - Investors may consider energy ETFs for diversified exposure to the growth in Alaska's oil production, particularly those with significant holdings in ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil [8][9]. Specific Energy ETFs - **State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)**: AUM of $27.87 billion, with XOM at 23.21% weight and COP at 6.77% weight; YTD gain of 9.8% [10]. - **Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE)**: Net assets of $7.1 billion, with XOM at 23.01% weight and COP at 5.52% weight; YTD gain of 9.5% [12]. - **Fidelity MSCI Energy Index ETF (FENY)**: Net assets of $1.3 billion, with XOM at 21.9% weight and COP at 5.70% weight; YTD gain of 9.7% [13].