Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitics is considered the single biggest risk for investors currently [3] - Key geopolitical issues include the war in Ukraine, the US-China tariff conflict, and the potential for China to take over Taiwan [3] - The US's strained relationships with traditional allies could impact the US dollar's reserve currency status [4] War in Ukraine - The war in Ukraine is unlikely to end soon because Vladimir Putin benefits from it as a means to maintain power by creating a foreign enemy [5][6] - Political solutions and offers may be ineffective because Putin's primary concern is staying in power [7] - The war is expected to continue for an extended period [8] Energy Market Leverage - Ending the war requires both weapons for Ukraine to strike Russian targets and addressing Russia's crude oil sales [10] - Since the war began, Russia has sold $400 billion of crude oil to China, India, and Turkey [10] - Targeting the eight refineries (two in China, four in India, two in Turkey) that purchase Russian oil could significantly impact Russia's revenue [10] - An ultimatum to these refineries to choose between doing business with the West or Russia could force them to buy from the West [11] - This could lead to Russian oil selling at $20 per barrel instead of $60, potentially forcing Putin to seek a ceasefire [12]

Barring another geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, the summer energy market may finally be catching a break, writes @SStapczynski https://t.co/Z1ZrkLqOd4 ...