Summary of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) - **Stock Codes**: 300750.SZ (A-shares), 3750.HK (H-shares) - **Market Cap**: Rmb1,837,796 million - **Industry**: Energy & Chemicals, specifically focusing on Energy Storage Systems (ESS) Key Points Industry Dynamics - China's commitment to decarbonization by 2035 is expected to drive a significant increase in ESS deployment, with a requirement of **1.4TWh** by 2030 and **3.6TWh** by 2035 from 2024 levels, indicating a **21% CAGR** in annual incremental development over the next five years and a **14% CAGR** over the next decade [2][11][30]. - The ESS market is anticipated to enter a **decade-long supercycle**, diverging from solar installations, as ESS becomes increasingly prioritized for grid security and to mitigate brownout risks due to the emerging "duck curve" in China's energy consumption [2][26][30]. Company Performance and Market Position - CATL is projected to consolidate its position in the domestic ESS market, with market share expected to rise from approximately **10%** to over **50%** within three years [3][58]. - The company’s products are expected to yield a **7-15 percentage point** premium in internal rate of return (IRR) for ESS projects compared to smaller battery manufacturers [3]. - CATL's A-shares have risen **63%** and H-shares **89%** since late June, outperforming the CSI300 and HSI indices [8]. Financial Projections - Price targets have been adjusted: - CATL-A: Rmb490.00 (up from Rmb425.00) - CATL-H: HK$585.00 (up from HK$465.00) [1][4]. - Revenue projections for CATL are as follows: - FY2025: Rmb419,342 million - FY2026: Rmb512,186 million - FY2027: Rmb624,481 million [6]. - EBITDA estimates have been raised, reflecting the anticipated growth in ESS deployment and market share gains [4][83]. Risks and Considerations - Upside risks for CATL-H include potential market liquidity and sentiment that could extend price targets into 2027/28 [5]. - Downside risks involve overly optimistic earnings forecasts from analysts, which may inflate market expectations [5][13]. Valuation and Comparisons - CATL's valuation is based on an **EV/EBITDA** multiple of **17x** for 2026E, reflecting improved earnings forecasts and a strong long-term outlook for ESS deployment [85]. - CATL currently trades at a **15% premium** to BYD-A, justified by superior earnings growth and a stronger position in the ESS market [86]. - Compared to LGES, CATL is trading at a **15% discount** on 2026E EV/EBITDA, which is viewed as undervalued given CATL's leading market share and profitability [87]. Future Outlook - The demand for ESS is expected to be bolstered by the new renewable energy trading mechanism in China, which will allow for profitable arbitrage opportunities [34][37]. - CATL is also positioned to capitalize on long-term opportunities in the robotics segment, with a projected total addressable market (TAM) for robotics batteries reaching **4TWh** by 2050 [76]. Conclusion - CATL is well-positioned to benefit from China's decarbonization efforts and the anticipated growth in the ESS market, with strong financial projections and a significant increase in market share expected in the coming years. The company's focus on high-quality products and innovative technologies will likely enhance its competitive edge in the evolving energy landscape.