Energy Trilemma

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Equinor's 2025 Energy Outlook Warns of Fragmented Energy Transition
ZACKS· 2025-06-16 13:20
Core Insights - Equinor ASA has released its Energy Perspectives 2025 report, outlining four divergent scenarios for the global economy, energy markets, and greenhouse gas emissions amid rising geopolitical tensions and a delayed energy transition [1][9] Group 1: Emissions and Climate Action - Equinor's chief economist highlighted that the current geopolitical landscape and trade conflicts hinder global cooperation necessary for a Paris-aligned energy transition, with short-term political priorities overshadowing climate ambitions [2] - The report indicates that rising global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 suggest a deviation from the 1.5°C climate target set by the Paris Agreement, with fragmentation in the global response to climate change posing significant risks [3] Group 2: Future Scenarios - The Energy Perspectives 2025 report presents four scenarios: Walls, Silos, Plazas, and Bridges, reflecting varying levels of cooperation, technological advancement, and policy direction, aimed at facilitating strategic thinking in an uncertain environment [4][9] - The "Walls" and "Silos" scenarios depict a fragmented world with slow progress on climate goals, while "Plazas" suggests moderate collaboration that still fails to meet the 1.5°C target; only the "Bridges" scenario aligns with the Paris Agreement but requires rapid global cooperation [5] Group 3: Long-Term Vision - Despite the challenges, the Bridges scenario indicates a potential pathway to a sustainable future aligned with the Paris Agreement, emphasizing the need for swift global cooperation to avoid a slower and more costly energy transition [6][7]