Core Insights - The Bitcoin treasury model is deteriorating, with only one company outperforming the S&P 500, which returned 16% in 2025 [1] - The Blockchain Group, a French treasury company, has seen a significant increase of approximately 164% since January 1 [1] - Most Bitcoin treasury companies are underperforming, with Strategy down 12%, Metaplanet losing nearly one-third of its stock price, and Nakamoto experiencing a decline of over 98% [1] Investment Performance - 60% of Bitcoin treasury companies are currently underwater on their investments [2] - The era of trading at premiums is over, indicating a shift towards survival based on disciplined structures and effective business execution [2] - The poster child for the movement, Strategy, has raised over $20 billion since August 2020, but the trade is now breaking down [3] Market Activity - There has been a drastic decline in Bitcoin purchases, with only 28 companies acquiring Bitcoin in November, down from 55 in October and 168 in July, marking an 83% drop from peak buying [4] - The model of raising capital through equity and debt has crumbled, leading to a significant reduction in capital available for Bitcoin purchases [4] Price Dynamics - The structural support for Bitcoin from treasury buying has diminished, leading to a loss of a major support pillar for Bitcoin prices [5] - The model relied on rising Bitcoin prices and sustained equity premiums, both of which have now disappeared [6] - Bitcoin prices fell 25% from October highs above $120,000, causing treasury stocks to decline even more sharply, indicating that the compression of equity premiums is damaging shareholder value more than Bitcoin's price drop [6]