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Let's Talk About Altcoins
Benjamin Cowenยท 2025-08-14 05:14
Market Analysis and Altcoin Valuation - The crypto industry should prioritize Bitcoin valuation over USD valuation for altcoins, as USD's purchasing power asymptotically approaches zero over time [2][3][4] - The industry primarily values altcoins against Bitcoin or Ethereum, deeming other valuations less relevant for assessing risk and potential uptrends [5] - Altcoins have decreased approximately 61% from their 2021 highs against Bitcoin, with a maximum decrease of about 69% [6] - The industry anticipates altcoins to rally against Bitcoin through late August [9][10] - Ethereum's valuation against Bitcoin has likely bottomed out for this market cycle [11] Bitcoin Dominance and Trend Reversals - Bitcoin dominance often encounters resistance at Fibonacci retracement levels [8] - Historically, Bitcoin dominance tends to reverse its course in September [25][27][28][29][30][44] - Bitcoin dominance typically drops whenever Bitcoin breaks out of a long consolidation period [35][36][37] Ethereum's Influence and Potential "Fake Alt Season" - Altcoins' upward movement against Bitcoin is primarily driven by Ethereum's performance against Bitcoin [17][18][32] - Altcoins have been consistently underperforming Ethereum since April [19][21][70] - The industry foresees a potential "fake alt season" following Ethereum reaching new all-time highs, followed by a correction in September [54][62] Future Outlook and Strategy - A Bitcoin correction is expected in September, potentially leading to increased Bitcoin dominance [40][65] - Altcoins are expected to rally against Bitcoin for the remainder of August, but this trend may reverse in September [22][66][71][74] - The industry suggests a rotation back to Bitcoin is likely to begin in approximately two weeks [67]