Currency Market - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.44% at a 1-week high, driven by the resignation of French Prime Minister Lecornu, which negatively impacted the euro [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown, now in its second week, is bearish for the dollar, with potential negative implications for GDP growth [2] - The USD/JPY has increased sharply by +1.72%, with the yen falling to a 2-month low following the election of pro-stimulus lawmaker Sanae Takaichi as the likely new Japanese prime minister [6] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The EUR/USD is down by -0.37%, reaching a 1-week low due to political turmoil in France after Prime Minister Lecornu's resignation [4] - The Eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index rose by +3.8 to -5.4, exceeding expectations of -7.7, providing some support for the euro [5] - Eurozone August retail sales increased by +0.1% month-over-month, aligning with expectations [4] Precious Metals Market - December gold is up by +64.60 (+1.65%), reaching a new contract high, while nearest-futures gold hit an all-time high of $3,944.00 per troy ounce [7] - December silver is also up by +0.585 (+1.22%), with nearest-futures silver achieving a 14-year high [7]

Currency Market Analysis - Euro weakness is observed, reversing gains after reaching a three-year high, influenced by dollar weakness and anticipation of a trade deal [1][2] - The pound initially experienced a relief rally following the UK trade deal announcement but later faced concerns about increased costs [4] - The pound fell below $1.34, considered low despite a recent high of $1.38, but it was the best-performing G10 currency yesterday [9] Trade Deal Impact - The trade deal is perceived as more expensive for companies than before, with a 15% cost increase exceeding the previously expected 1% [3] - Market reaction to trade deals may be overdone, with uncertainty about whether they are ultimately beneficial for Europe or detrimental to the US [4][5] Economic Data and Central Bank Meetings - Key central bank meetings, including the Fed, are anticipated as potential catalysts to shift the current narrative [6] - Crucial US data, including inflation and jobs reports, will be important for assessing the US economy's performance and the impact of tariffs [7] - EU GDP data and the Bank of England decision next week are being priced into the pound, influencing the euro [8] Earnings and Equity Market - Strong earnings results are observed from banks like Barclays, indicating a bullish outlook on the equity side [11] - Big tech earnings this week will be crucial for assessing the equity story and the vulnerability of the S&P rally [12] - Value stocks, particularly the Footsie 100, are outperforming the Stoxx 600 and the S&P in terms of year-to-date returns [12]