Core Viewpoint - The consensus expectation is for a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with a shallower path anticipated into the first half of 2026, coinciding with the end of Powell's term as chair [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market is currently anticipating a more dovish pivot, but this is not reflected in market behavior, indicating a complex dynamic [10][11]. - There is a possibility of dissent within the Federal Reserve, with expectations of multiple dissenting opinions regarding the rate cut decision [3][4][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Current data suggests weakness in the job market, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process [6][7]. - Inflation affecting Americans, particularly in utility and food costs, is largely beyond the Fed's control, leading to a decline in discretionary spending [8][9]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Communication - The tone and approach of Jay Powell during the press conference will be crucial, as he may deviate from the committee's script to express his own views [12][13].

Core Insights - Bitcoin's price is currently experiencing weakness and is struggling to find direction amid muted macro signals, with a bullish-neutral prediction on the horizon [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee's anticipated 25 basis point rate cut could potentially shift market sentiment, depending on the behavior of short-term holders [1] Supply Dynamics - The Short-Term Holder (STH) to Long-Term Holder (LTH) Supply Ratio has increased from 18.3% to 18.5%, indicating a growing presence of short-term holders in Bitcoin's supply mix [2] - This increase in STHs suggests a rise in speculative activity, which may enhance liquidity but also lead to increased volatility in the market [2][3] Profitability Metrics - Bitcoin's Percent Supply in Profit has risen from 66.5% to 67.3%, reflecting a modest gain of 1.2%, yet remains significantly below the 98.4% high typically seen in strong bull markets [5] - The current profitability levels indicate a cautious market environment, with many investors adopting a selective and patient approach [6] Price Action and Predictions - Bitcoin's price is currently at $90,399, attempting to establish $90,400 as a support level, which is crucial for reversing the ongoing downtrend [7] - If macro conditions improve and rate cuts stimulate market optimism, Bitcoin could see a rebound towards $95,000, with a potential path to the long-anticipated $100,000 level [8] - Conversely, if short-term holders sell during upward movements, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain upward momentum, risking a drop back to $86,822 [9]