Key focus and themes Global Markets Research Foreign Exchange Asia exJapan/Euro Area/Europe Softer USD drivers back in focus Considering June NFP (3 July), Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" (4 July) and the tariff deadline (9 July), where do you expect EUR/USD to trade in two weeks (current spot: 1.17)? | | ★★★★★ | | Top 5 FX and Rates Trades | | ★★★★★ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Countries | Trade | bp move | bp move from | Target | Timeline | Conviction (0-5) | | | | from start | current | ...

J P M O R G A N Global FX Strategy 27 June 2025 FX Mid Year Outlook Ten questions (and answers) on currencies in 2H25 Outlook:Stay bearish USD. Valuation undershoots vs. rates/ equities, positioning, and a paucity of discrete catalysts are not a constraint for further weakness. Quality of USD carry has deteriorated and the dollar smile has widened. Historical data across DMs shows that FX hedge rebalancing should continue to act as a dollar depressant. Significant CNY strength is not a pre-condition for USD ...