Interest Rate Expectations & Monetary Policy - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve funds rate to be around 3% in the future, potentially influencing the housing market [5] - A neutral rate around 3% to 375% suggests current monetary policy remains tight [3] - The market is pricing in events 6 to 8 months ahead, indicating forward-looking expectations beyond current observations [9] Housing Market Dynamics - Approximately 85% of mortgage holders have rates below 55%, creating a barrier to moving unless rates narrow considerably [5] - A rate of 55% is seen as a potential catalyst to unlock the housing market [7] - Refinancing below 3% in January 2021 highlights the sensitivity of homeowners to mortgage rates [6] Market & Sector Implications - Small caps, particularly the Russell 2000, are up 19% [7] - Lower interest rates are expected to benefit tech investments and consumer discretionary sectors like Best Buy, Home Depot, Ford, and GM [10] - 40% of the Russell 2000 is unprofitable, making them highly reliant on interest rates and variable margins [9]