Core Insights - Kalshi has demonstrated notable predictive accuracy in various political and economic events, including the 2024 presidential election and Federal Reserve rate decisions [1][2][5] Group 1: Predictive Accuracy - A study from the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates that Kalshi's predictions are as accurate as Wall Street's and outperform Fed funds futures, achieving a perfect forecast record from 2022 through June [2] - Kalshi's median and mode forecasts showed a statistically significant improvement over traditional Fed funds futures forecasts, particularly on the day before FOMC meetings [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantage - Kalshi's platform allows for real-time decision-making, providing an edge over traditional surveys conducted by the New York Fed, which have a longer response time [3] - The platform's ability to react instantly to news events enhances its predictive capabilities compared to the six-week frequency of the New York Fed's primary dealer survey [3][4] Group 3: Market Growth - Prediction markets have seen a significant increase in trading volume, growing from $300 million to approximately $40 billion to $50 billion since August 2025 [4] - Kalshi's agility in tracking decisions daily or even by the minute contributes to its appeal in the prediction market landscape [4] Group 4: Specific Case Study - Kalshi's accuracy was particularly highlighted during the September 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where it correctly anticipated a 50-basis-point cut, while other forecasters were divided [5] - This correct prediction contributed to Kalshi achieving a zero-error rate during the analyzed period [5]