Core Viewpoint - Spot Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a price-discovery phase, reaching new records around $4,630, indicating a strong uptrend despite recent volatility [1][4][17] Technical Analysis - XAU/USD is currently in overbought territory with a 4-hour RSI around 65, showing signs of bearish divergence, while MACD indicates cooling upside momentum [2][10] - Immediate support is at $4,555, with further support levels at $4,500 and $4,440, while resistance is noted at $4,625–$4,640 and the next target at $4,714 [3][14] - Major institutions project gold prices to reach between $4,450 and $5,050 over the next 12–18 months, with a consensus around $5,000 for 2026 [9][17] Macro Drivers - The current gold price is influenced by US inflation expectations, with consensus predicting a 0.3% month-on-month rise in CPI, keeping year-on-year inflation near 2.7% [4][14] - Global debt levels are at approximately $346 trillion, about 310% of world GDP, which raises concerns about fiat currency stability and increases gold's appeal as a hedge [6][7] Geopolitical Factors - Civil unrest in Iran and new US tariff threats are contributing to increased demand for gold as a safe haven, reflecting a structural premium in XAU/USD [5][17] - The political landscape surrounding the Federal Reserve, including potential charges against Chair Powell, adds to the uncertainty, further supporting gold prices [4][17] Market Dynamics - Central banks and ETFs are driving demand for gold, with annual purchases reaching around 700 tonnes, establishing a structural floor under demand [8][17] - The shift to percentage-based margins for gold futures by the CME indicates a recognition of increased volatility and the need for more collateral, impacting speculative positions [11][10] Equity Market Response - Gold mining equities are reflecting the gold price movement, with companies like Barrick Mining and Newmont showing significant gains as gold prices rise [12][17] - The upcoming earnings reports from mining companies will be critical in assessing how much of the gold rally translates into free cash flow and dividends [13][17]

Core Viewpoint - Governments are resorting to printing money to manage their debt, leading to concerns about fiat currency debasement, with bitcoin and gold being proposed as viable alternatives [1] Group 1 - The reliance on money printing by governments is increasing as a method to handle national debt [1] - Bitcoin and gold are highlighted as potential solutions to counteract the effects of fiat currency devaluation [1]

Core Insights - The White House has managed to ease tensions with China, but gold remains a strong asset amid ongoing market volatility [1][4] - Political instability, currency debasement, and rising debt levels have contributed to gold's significant rally this year, reinforcing its status as a safe haven [2][5] - The recent market dynamics have shown a divergence between gold and cryptocurrencies, with gold acting as a refuge during market sell-offs [5][6] Market Dynamics - The stock market experienced a sudden rebound after a sell-off, which was influenced by the easing of trade tensions with China [4] - Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of approximately 10%, dropping from $122,000 to as low as $109,000, leading to a significant reduction in the overall cryptocurrency market cap [7][9] - The volatility in the cryptocurrency market contrasts with gold's stability, highlighting the differences in investor behavior during market downturns [5][6] Economic Indicators - Prior to the recent tensions, Bitcoin had reached a new high, while the US dollar index had decreased by nearly 9% for the year, indicating a potential shift in perceptions of value [9] - Long-dated Treasury yields remain high, suggesting ongoing interest in alternative stores of value, including digital currencies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's recent price movements are reviving the "debasement trade," which involves investing in scarce assets as a hedge against the dilution of fiat currencies [1] Group 1: Bitcoin as a Hedge - Bitcoin is viewed by advocates as a protection against inflation and government overspending, similar to gold [2][3] - The fixed supply of Bitcoin at 21 million and its halving events are designed to create scarcity, making it a trusted store of value [4] - Bitcoin's market cap currently stands at $2.4 trillion, with expectations for continued growth as fiat currencies are debased [4] Group 2: Comparison with Real Assets - Bitcoin is likened to real assets, which have appreciated faster than inflation rates, benefiting from the debasement of fiat currencies [4] - The ongoing money printing by US and G7 governments is expected to sustain the rise of Bitcoin and other real assets, with any corrections seen as temporary [4]

Group 1 - Bitcoin has experienced significant growth, with its market cap reaching $2.2 trillion, and is now gaining attention from both Wall Street and Washington [1] - The U.S. is facing a substantial debt burden nearing $40 trillion, which, along with an increasing money supply, contributes to economic instability [3] - Bitcoin's fixed supply cap of 21 million units creates scarcity, making it an attractive asset in the context of fiat currency debasement [4] Group 2 - A forecast suggests Bitcoin's price could triple by 2030, reaching $333,000, which implies an annualized gain of 25%, outperforming the broader stock market [5] - Despite the potential for significant gains, Bitcoin's price is subject to volatility driven by supply and demand dynamics influenced by macroeconomic factors [6] - Investors are advised to consider the limited supply of Bitcoin and the ongoing increase in federal debt and money supply before making investment decisions [7]