Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry/Company Involved - The analysis focuses on the impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on consumer spending in the US economy, particularly in North America. Core Insights and Arguments - **Consumer Spending Impact**: A slight boost to consumer spending is expected in 2026, estimated at approximately 15 basis points (bp), but larger negative impacts are anticipated in 2027 and beyond due to tax cuts expiring and spending cuts to programs like Medicaid and SNAP [1][9][10]. - **Cohort Analysis**: - Older and higher-income cohorts are expected to benefit the most from the bill, particularly through deductions for seniors and an increase in the SALT cap [1][11][24]. - Low-income consumers will face significant negative impacts due to cuts in transfer payments, with estimates suggesting that around 10 million individuals could lose access to federal health insurance by 2034 [1][27]. - Middle-income consumers may experience mixed effects, benefiting in the short term from new deductions but facing potential long-term negative impacts as tax cuts expire [1][26]. Additional Important Content - **Fiscal Multipliers**: The analysis indicates that spending cuts generally have larger multipliers than tax cuts, meaning that reductions in transfer payments to low-income consumers will have a more immediate and larger impact on demand [1][15]. - **Long-term Economic Growth**: The overall boost to consumption in 2026 is considered small relative to the drags from trade and immigration policy, which are expected to slow US economic activity [1][11][29]. - **Specific Provisions**: Key consumer-facing provisions include deductions for tips, overtime, and car loan interest, as well as changes to Medicaid and SNAP, which will have varying impacts across different income cohorts [1][12][31][50]. - **Projected Economic Growth**: The OBBBA is expected to add around 40 basis points to US GDP growth in 2026, primarily driven by defense spending and corporate tax changes, rather than consumer spending [1][10]. Data and Projections - **Consumer Spending Projections**: - 2026: +15 bp boost to nominal spending - 2027: -18 bp drag on nominal spending - 2029 and beyond: Negative impacts become more pronounced as tax cuts expire [1][19][21]. - **CBO Cost Estimates**: Various provisions have associated costs, such as the tips deduction costing $10 billion in 2026 and $31 billion total, while changes to Medicaid are estimated to save $7 billion in 2026 and $115 billion total [1][16][50]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections regarding the impact of the OBBBA on consumer spending and various income cohorts, highlighting both the immediate benefits and the longer-term challenges posed by the legislation.