Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey reported a score of 49, indicating a decline in consumer confidence, particularly regarding the government shutdown, inflation, and job security [2][4] - There is a noted discrepancy between soft data, like consumer sentiment, and hard data, suggesting a continuing pattern of economic uncertainty [3][5] Treasury Yields - Treasury yields are expected to remain rangebound due to a lack of hard data, with the government shutdown preventing the release of key employment reports [5][6] - Global yields remain elevated, which is likely to influence capital flows and keep U.S. yields high [7] - The term premium, reflecting investor compensation for market uncertainty, is also expected to remain elevated, contributing to sustained higher long-term yields [8][9] Municipal Bonds - Recent months have shown positive returns in the municipal bond market, although they still lag behind corporate and treasury markets [10][11] - Municipal bonds are considered an attractive investment option for higher tax bracket investors, especially given their relative valuations compared to corporate bonds [11][12] - The yield on municipal bonds is appealing, with a tax rate of about 24% needed for corporate bond yields after taxes to match municipal yields, which is historically low [12][13]

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market's focus should be on clarity regarding fiscal policy uncertainty rather than solely on Fed rate cuts [3] - The bond market signals concerns about deficits and debt levels, potentially limiting policy room for market advancement [5] - Despite markets near all-time highs, investors are seeking opportunities to deploy capital [7] Investment Strategy & Sector Performance - The firm is using the correction and rally to reposition portfolios, not to de-risk or build cash positions, anticipating better-than-expected Q2 earnings [10] - The firm favors quality-oriented technicals over deep value stories, expecting strong results from financials, industrials, and perennial tech [11] - An alternative perspective suggests taking profits on industrials and fading the rally on small caps [9] Economic Indicators - The dollar experienced its worst first half of the year in approximately 50 years [4] - While a steepening yield curve historically indicates positive growth, current dynamics suggest a more bearish outlook related to deficits and debt [6][7] - The 30-year bond is near a 15-year high [4]